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Credit Volatility and Productivity Growth

100%

Brzozowski M.

tom 13

nr nr 2

215-232

Research background: The issues of finance-growth nexus and financial instability have attracted considerable attention, but have been studied in isolation. This paper aims at filling this gap by providing insights into the implications of financial instability for long term productivity growth.Purpose of the article: This paper sheds light on the relationship between credit-to-GDP ratio volatility and the total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate. The impact of systemic banking crises and financial depth on productivity growth is also studied.Methods: The System GMM estimation of panel data for over 100 countries and spanning the period of 1970-2009 is used. The decomposition of credit-to-GDP ratio into trend and cyclical component is performed using the Hodrick-Prescott filter and a regression analysis with country-specific intercepts and slopes. The data on TFP comes from the Penn World Tables database.Findings & Value added: TFP growth is negatively affected by credit volatility, mainly in less technologically advanced countries, while financial depth exerts a negative influence on TFP growth in economies with superior technology. Systemic banking crises and the concomitant credit crunches have a negative impact on productivity growth, regardless of the level of technological development. Moreover, the level of human capital, patents and globalization fuel productivity growth. Macroeconomic instability, measured by the rate of inflation, hampers TFP growth. (original abstract)

Trust Cycle of the Finance Sector and its Determinants: The Case of Ukraine

100%

Brychko M. , Polách , Kuzmenko O. , Olejarz T.

nr nr 4

300-324

The paper presents the results of exploring the characteristics of trust cycle in the financial sector of the economy in general and across its main components (trust in banking and non-bank financial and credit systems) illustrated by the economy in transition - Ukraine - for the period 1st quarter 2009 - 1st quarter 2018. Determinants of nonlinear dynamics of public trust in the financial sector of the economy were also identified. For this purpose, an algorithm has been developed that enables studying the cyclical nature of public trust in the financial sector and testing the hypotheses about the determinants of its nonlinear dynamics. To highlight the cyclical component of the time series, harmonic analysis via Fourier transformations was used. In order to analyze public trust in the financial sector and its main components the following indicators were used: absolute volatility, relative volatility (in relation to financial and business cycles), the persistence of actual values and cyclic components, correlation with financial and business cycles. Our main result is that trust in the banking system has a greater cyclical amplitude than the national economy, the financial sector of the economy, and psychological dimensions of economic agents (a propensity to save and financial savings). High volatility of trust in the banking system indicates that any news or an event could lead to destabilization processes, ignoring of which may lead to a banking crisis. (original abstract)

Redicovering Mises-Hayek monetary and business cycle theory in light of the current crisis : credit expansion as a source of economic boom and bust

84%

Mrowiec M.

nr nr 2

64-74

The article starts with a brief description of Mises monetary theory, with emphasis on the Misesian differentiation of two kinds of credit: commodity and circulation credit, and with the description of the impact of circulation credit expansion on the business cycle. Further on it is described how Mises insights constituted the kernel of Austrian Business Cycle Theory, and how the same observations on the nature of credit constituted the kernel of the Chicago Plan (though Mises views on the nature of credit led him to different conculsions than it led the authors of the Chicago Plan), and how this plan is being rediscovered now. The following sections deal with observations of one of the preeminent current macroeconomic researches, Mr. Claudio Borio, on the elasticity of credit as the source of the current crisis, and on the importance of the financial cycle in analysing the current economic crisis. The author of this text demonstrates that Austrian Business Cycle Theory gave the same answer regarding the sources of economic crises that now modern macroeconomic theory seems to be approaching, and that the postulates for successful financial cycle modeling are already included in the ABCT. Finally, some observations on the current crisis, as well as proposals of avenues of further research are proposed. (original abstract)