Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Credit Cycles and Macroprudential Policies in Emerging Market Economies

100%

Lazarevic J. , Kuzman T. , Nedeljkovic M.

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nr nr 3

633-666

EN

Research background: Excessive credit expansions have an important role in the generation and amplification of business cycles in emerging market (EM) economies. Macroprudential policies can be beneficial in restraining excessive credit growth and safeguarding financial stability. Despite recent theoretical advances in understanding of the benefits of macroprudential policies, empirical evidence on their effect on the credit cycle is still scarce.Purpose of the article: This paper studies the effectiveness of macroprudential measures in the sample of major EM economies focusing on the broad credit measure and using an empirical framework which aims to alleviate several concerns in the previous literature. We examine the effectiveness of four categories of measures which are granular enough to provide relevant policy perspectives, whilst mitigating data sparsity issues. By exploiting both time-series and crosscountry variation in the tightness of macroprudential regulation in the construction of policy variables we also mitigate some of the common reverse causality concerns.Methods: We use panel data and employ several (fixed effect, bias corrected LSDV and dynamic interactive fixed effect) estimators to ensure that the results are not sensitive with respect to the estimation method while, together with our construction of the policy variables, alleviating other endogeneity concerns.Findings & value added: We uncover the heterogeneity in the effects of macroprudential measures on the credit cycle. While measures related to bank capital and credit activity are found to be effective in leaning-against the credit cycle, the measures targeting bank liquidity and FX exposures fail to have statistically significant effect. Our results provide the rationale for mixed evidence in the empirical literature studying the effectiveness of the broadly defined macroprudential measures. From the policy perspective, our findings provide evidence that the measures which address excessive credit expansion and strengthen the resilience of the financial system are effective in the EM economies. (original abstract)

2

Institutions, Economic Openness and Credit Cycles: An International Evidence

84%

Nguyen C. P. , Schinckus C. , Thanh S. D. , Chong F. H. L.

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tom 13

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nr nr 4

229-247

EN

This study aims at investigating the influence of institutions and economic openness on credit cycles in a global sample. Six institutional quality indicators combined with net inward FDI and trade openness are collected to estimate, respectively, the effects of institutions and economic openness on credit cycles. Our panel data covers 60 economies, including 32 low- and middle-income economies (LMEs) and 28 high-income economies (HIEs), the data ranging between 2003 and 2017. Although better institutions tend to stimulate credit growth, they significantly stabilize credit cycles. These findings are documented with significant results in LMEs while it is less obvious in HIEs. (original abstract)

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Źródła i morfologia cykli kredytowych w Polsce w latach 1998-2013

84%

Barczyk R.

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nr nr 35 T.2 Problemy współczesnej ekonomii

261-277

XX

W gospodarkach rynkowych występują oprócz ogólnogospodarczego cyklu koniunkturalnego cykle specyficzne, a wśród nich cykl kredytowy. Fluktuacje, których sekwencja w czasie tworzy cykle kredytowe, są to absolutne lub/i względne zmiany w działalności kredytowej banków, których formą przejawiania są oscylacje przyznanych i wykorzystywanych na cele inwestycyjne lub konsumpcyjne kredytów bankowych. Celem pracy jest analiza czynników generujących powstawanie i kształtowanie się cykli kredytowych oraz określenie elementów ich budowy i najważniejszych cech morfologicznych, charakteryzujących zewnętrzne formy ich przejawiania. Cechy te są analizowane na tle ogólnogospodarczego cyklu koniunkturalnego występującego w gospodarce polskiej w okresie od I kwartału 1998 do IV kwartału 2013 roku. Opracowanie składa się z dwóch części. W pierwszej omówiono genezę cykli kredytowych, która wynika z akceptowanych celów i narzędzi polityki pieniężnej banku centralnego oraz z prowadzonych operacji aktywnych krajowych i zagranicznych banków komercyjnych. Część druga zawiera wyniki analizy empirycznej cech morfologicznych cykli kredytowych występujących wśród polskich przedsiębiorstw i gospodarstw domowych. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Apart from the general economic cycles, market economies are characterized by their specific cycles which also include the credit cycle. Fluctuations whose sequence over time creates credit cycles are absolute or/and relative changes in credit-related activities of banks, manifested in the form of oscillations in bank credits granted for investment or consumption purposes. The aim of this study is to analyze factors generating and shaping credit cycles, to determine the elements of their structure and to present the most important morphological features which characterize external forms of their manifestation. Those features are analyzed on the background of the general business cycle occurring in Poland's economy in the period from quarter I 1998 to quarter IV 2013. The article consists of two parts. The first one discusses the origin of credit cycles which results from the approved objectives and instruments of the central bank's monetary policy and from the operations carried out by active national and foreign commercial banks. The second part contains the results of empirical analysis of the morphological features of credit cycles occurring among the Polish enterprises and households. (original abstract)

4

Credit Markets and Bubbles: is the Benign Credit Cycle Over?

84%

Altman E. I. , Kuehne B. J.

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nr nr 3

20-31

EN

Bubble theories are becoming quite common these days for several asset classes, and in important growth areas of the world, like China, India and the U.S. Are we in the midst of an inflating credit bubble and, if so, when is it likely that the bubble will burst? Contrarily, are we experiencing an extended period of opportunistic debt financing? The evidence we have compiled leads us to conclude that, indeed, a bubble is building, but it is not likely to explode dramatically, with a significant increase in corporate bond and loan defaults, until at least late 2016 or more likely in 2017-2018. We believe that if not for the enormous credit stimuli by all of the major Central Banks of the world, the most recent benign credit cycle, one of over six years now, would be over, and a new stressed cycle would be starting. That is, the match (cycle) is now in "extra-time." (original abstract)