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2 Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)

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HOW DO OIL PRICE CHANGES AFFECT THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE? EVIDENCE FROM CO-INTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY TESTS

100%

Turan T. , Karakas M. , Ozer H. A.

nr 1

55 – 68

This paper examines the relationship between the global oil prices and current account balances in Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland by using ARDL and causality analysis. Our estimates indicate that there is a co-integrating relationship among the global oil price, current account balance, GDP growth rate, and real exchange rate in the sample countries. We find that a change in oil price has a significant effect on the current account balance in Poland and Czech Republic. Additionally, our results suggest that a change in the growth rate exerts a significant effect on the current account in these two countries. Moreover, there is a causal relationship running from the oil prices to current account balances in all sample countries in the short run. Furthermore, it seems that the growth rates Granger cause the current account in Czech Republic and Hungary in the short run. Finally, we also detect a long run and strong causality between variables in some cases.

TEST OF INTER-TEMPORAL MODEL OF CURRENT ACCOUNT: EVIDENCE FROM THE CZECH REPUBLIC, HUNGARY, POLAND AND SLOVAKIA

84%

Pošta V.

tom 61

nr 9

897 – 917

A current account may be viewed as an indicator of an imbalance between savings and investments in an economy. One of the key issues is the degree to which consumption is sensitive to actual temporary changes in current income. Modern inter-temporal approach builds on permanent income hypothesis, which concludes that the sensitivity of consumption (and savings) to temporary changes in income is low. The paper formulates a simple inter-temporal model of current account and employs the present value test of the model in the cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. It further focuses on the role of habits in modelling current accounts. The results show that a simple inter-temporal model has some descriptive power, especially in the case of the Czech Republic, but overall it gives rather poor results. It is the assumption that the economy consists strictly of Ricardian agents that seems to be the main reason behind the empirical failure.