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1 Prace i Materiały Wydziału Zarządzania Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego

1 2011

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Bayesowskie porównanie modeli zachowań prokreacyjnych

100%

Zając B. , Osiewalski K.

nr 3

21-39

In this paper we analyze fertility in Poland among married couples, in which the age of woman was in the interval 15-49. We used data from the Polish Fertility and Family Survey questionnaire, held in 1991. The analysis captured 40 years: from early 50s to early 90s. The aim of this paper was formal Bayesian comparison of selected failure time models (proportional hazard for grouped data, discrete Cox proportional hazard model and log-logistic Accelerated Failure Time) describing the time between the marriage of a couple and the birth of their first child with relation to several demographic and social variables. After estimating the a posteriori distribution over the space of selected models, we present an analysis of fertility, within the framework of the most probable model, subject to variables describing the woman, i.e. year of birth (generation), living area, education, number of siblings, age of marriage and employment. As a result we described rules of procreative bahaviour described as risk of birth of the first child in marriage depending on levels of selected variables.