Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Determinants of Chinese demand for tourism in Malaysia

100%

Puah C.-H. , Huan S.-H. , Thien F.-T.

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nr Issue 3

501-512

EN

Tourism sector in Malaysia has always been one of its focal service industries not only in the past, but in the future as well in which Malaysian government has been focusing on diverting its economic activities from a resource-based to a service-based economy in its new economic model. China, a strongly emerging economy has been ranked as the third main tourist generating country for Malaysia since 2012. Hence, this study empirically identifies the macroeconomic determinants affecting the tourism demand from China to Malaysia. These determinants include real income, travel cost, exchange rate and trade openness. Particularly, real income and trade openness are evident to positively affect Chinese tourism demand while travel cost and exchange rate are found to adversely influence Chinese tourists’ decision to travel to Malaysia.

2

Relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies on output growth in Turkey: an ARDL bounds test approach

100%

Özer M. , Karagöl V.

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nr 3

391-409

EN

Research background: Effects of monetary and fiscal policy on output growth has been one of the major topics that economists have been investigating. Monetary and fiscal policies are tools for economists and policymakers to correctly direct the economy and facilitate the growth and development of the country. Accordingly, it is critically important for policy-makers in the area of economy to study the efficiency and the effectiveness of such policies. But, so far, there has been no generally accepted evidence suggesting the effectiveness of either the policy in Turkey or around the world. Instead, the dominance of either policy is subject to a change period to period and country to country. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this study is to analyze the growth effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies and then determine which of these two policies is more powerful in promoting economic growth in Turkey over the period 1998 and 2016. Methods: To investigate the growth effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies, we use some of the time series econometric techniques, such as ARDL Bounds testing, structural break unit root tests and Granger causality tests. Findings & Value added: Monetary policy variable is creating only short-run effects on growth; but, it's not causing any Granger causality on it. On the other hand, fiscal policy variable has a long-run significant effect and causing to growth. Thus, the fiscal policy seems to be more effective than monetary policy during examination period, implying the rethinking the implementation of both policies in Turkey. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to investigate the relative effectiveness of economic policies on growth in Turkey in terms of both methods used and period chosen.

3

Assessing Macroeconomic Influences on Indian Sovereign Bond Yields: An Insight from the ARDL Bound Test Approach

89%

Utsav , Patra S. K. , Naik P. K.

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nr 4

93-114

PL

Rentowność obligacji to wskaźnik najczęściej obserwowany przez inwestorów i bank centralny kraju. Zgodnie z teorią struktury terminowej kształt rentowności obligacji jest kluczowym barometrem gospodarczym i określa się go mianem wskaźnika kondycji gospodarki. W artykule opisano badania długoterminowych i krótkoterminowych determinant rentowności długoterminowych obligacji skarbowych w Indiach. W badaniu wykorzystano miesięczne zmienne makroekonomiczne szeregów czasowych, takie jak rentowność długoterminowych obligacji skarbowych, rentowność krótkoterminowych bonów skarbowych, wzrost gospodarczy, inflacja, wskaźnik polityki pieniężnej, kurs wymiany, rezerwy walutowe, deficyt budżetowy brutto i światowa cena ropy Brent w okresie od kwietnia 2001 r. do marca 2021 r. Uwzględniając załamania strukturalne w ramach ARDL w obecności innych kontrolowanych zmiennych, ustalono, że krótkoterminowe stopy procentowe wpływają na długoterminowe stopy procentowe, co potwierdza słuszność hipotezy Keynesa w kontekście Indii. Stwierdzono również, że wzrost gospodarczy, wskaźnik polityki pieniężnej i cena ropy Brent na świecie również są czynnikami wpływającymi na długoterminową stopę procentową. Ustalenia te mają istotne implikacje polityczne dla obecnych dyskusji na temat kombinacji polityk podczas cykli wzrostów i spadków oraz koordynacji monetarno-fiskalnej. Dlatego też politykę pieniężną należy poddać przeglądowi z uwzględnieniem wszystkich zmiennych makroekonomicznych.

EN

This paper investigates the long-term and short-term determinants of sovereign bond yields in India, a critical macroeconomic indicator closely monitored by investors and central banks. According to term structure theory, the shape of bond yields is a key economic barometer, reflecting the overall health of the economy. Using monthly time series data from April 2001 to March 2021, the study examines variables such as long-term sovereign bond yields, short-term Treasury bill yields, economic growth, inflation, the monetary policy index, exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, gross fiscal deficit, and global Brent crude oil prices. By accounting for structural breaks under the ARDL framework, in the presence of other controlled variables, the analysis confirmed that short-term interest rates influence long-term interest rates, validating the Keynesian conjecture in the Indian context. Additionally, economic growth, the monetary policy index, and global Brent crude oil price are identified as significant drivers of long-term interest rates. These findings have important policy implications for monetary-fiscal coordination, especially in debates on the appropriate policy mix during boom-and-bust cycles. Consequently, monetary policy should be reviewed comprehensively, incorporating a broad range of macroeconomic variables.

4

The Impact of COVID-19 Cases on Stock Prices of Selected Companies Representing Tourism and Banking Sectors

88%

Dayan V. , Bolek M. , Trinidad-Segovia J. E.

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2023

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tom 1

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nr 37

7-31

EN

The purpose of the article/hypothesis: The purpose of the article is to analyse the relationship between stock prices of selected companies and COVID-19 cases in those countries where the tourism and banking sectors have a high share of national income, such as Croatia, Italy and Spain. Methodology: The methods used are Breakpoint Unit Root Tests to determine whether a time series is stationary or not, and ARDL cointegration technique for cointegration testing. Results of the research: It was found that the number of COVID-19 cases negatively impacted the tourism and banking market in surveyed EU countries.

5

HOW DO OIL PRICE CHANGES AFFECT THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE? EVIDENCE FROM CO-INTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY TESTS

75%

Turan T. , Karakas M. , Ozer H. A.

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nr 1

55 – 68

EN

This paper examines the relationship between the global oil prices and current account balances in Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland by using ARDL and causality analysis. Our estimates indicate that there is a co-integrating relationship among the global oil price, current account balance, GDP growth rate, and real exchange rate in the sample countries. We find that a change in oil price has a significant effect on the current account balance in Poland and Czech Republic. Additionally, our results suggest that a change in the growth rate exerts a significant effect on the current account in these two countries. Moreover, there is a causal relationship running from the oil prices to current account balances in all sample countries in the short run. Furthermore, it seems that the growth rates Granger cause the current account in Czech Republic and Hungary in the short run. Finally, we also detect a long run and strong causality between variables in some cases.

6

Carbon emissions, energy use, gross domestic product and total population in China

71%

Ahmad M. , Hengyi H. , Rahman Z. U. , Khan Z. U. , Khan S. , Khan Z.

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tom nr 2

32--44

EN

The current study explores the impact of energy consumption, total population, gross domestic product on carbon emissions by utilizing time series data of 1971-2013 for China. Earlier studies concentrated on testing the present form of an environmental Kuznets curve not taking total population in a model. Specifically, this study focuses on analyzing the long run existence of environmental Kuznets curve. The methodology of auto regressive distributed lag model is utilized. The quadratic linkage between national income and emissions of carbon have been detected, confirming the presence of long run linkage between quadratic national income and emissions of carbon. Granger causality test divulge one-way causality between gross domestic product and carbon emissions. The empirical findings also reveal that the energy use and national income are important factors of carbon emanations in the long run. Total population has an insignificant positive influence on emissions of carbon. It is suggested that government should focus to extract that substitute sources of energy which is more environmental friendly.

7

Is Economic Integration a Historical Shock to City-size Distribution?

65%

Sorhun E.

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nr 1

83-100

PL

Opierając się na założeniu, że proces integracji gospodarczej wpływa, poprzez reformy rynkowe, na dynamikę procesu kształtowania przestrzeni w krajach kandydujących, w niniejszym opracowaniu podjęto próbę udzielenia odpowiedzi na pytanie (i) czy dominujące są siły aglomeracyjne czy rozpraszające (ii) czy integracja z UE powoduje przerwy strukturalne w rozkładzie przestrzeni w czasie; (iii) czy integracja z UE powoduje bardziej równomierny czy nierównomierny rozkład wielkości miast w ośmiu wschodnich państwach członkowskich Unii Europejskiej (UE–8). W toku analizy wykorzystano test Zivota‑Andrewsa i test CUSUMSQ w celu zidentyfikowania przerw strukturalnych; test ARDL Bound posłużył do pokazania związku między równowagą długookresową i krótkookresową; test Grangera posłużył do określenia kierunku przyczynowości między zmiennymi. Główne wnioski z analizy: integracja z UE (i) spowodowała przerwę strukturalną w istniejącym rozkładzie wielkości miast, (ii) powiększyła nierównomierność rozkładu wielkości miast i (iii) spowodowała przewagę sił aglomeracyjnych nad siłami rozpraszającymi w państwach UE –8.

EN

Based on the assumption that the economic integration process contributes, via market reforms, to the dynamics of the space distribution in candidate countries, this study examines (i) whether agglomeration forces or dispersion forces are dominant; (ii) whether EU-integration causes a structural break to the space distribution over time; (iii) whether EU-integration makes the city-size distribution more even or uneven in eight eastern European Union members (EU–8). To carry out the analysis, the Ziwot-Andrew and Cusum Square tests are used to detect structural breaks; the ARDL Bound test is used to reveal the interaction between long-run and short-run equilibrium; and the Granger test is used to determine the direction of the causality among the variables. The main results are: the integration with the EU (i) caused a structural break to the city-size distribution, (ii) made the city-size distribution more uneven and (iii) stimulated the agglomerating forces over the spreading forces in the EU–8.

8

Foreign direct investment and economic growth in developing countries: The role of international trade and foreign debt

63%

Epor S. O. , Yua H. , Terhemba Iorember P.

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nr 1

1-17

EN

The existing literature is sparse on the role of international finance in modeling the FDI-growth nexus. This study integrates the role of international trade and external debt in the FDI-economic growth nexus for Brazil, Nigeria, and Vietnam. We apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to annual data covering the period 1990-2021. The results show that FDI and trade have positive but insignificant effects on economic growth in all three countries. In addition, our results show that external debt hampers long-term economic growth in these countries. Based on the results, we propose country-specific recommendations that take into account specific economic and financial conditions, global market dynamics, and the long-term development goals of developing countries.