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1 Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej

1 2008

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WORLD AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALISATION AND GROWTH PROSPECTS OF POLISH FOREIGN TRADE IN AGRI-FOOD PRODUCTS

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Poczta W. , Pawlak K.

Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej

2008

nr 3(316)

3-18

Some possible scenarios of Polish agri-food trade development until 2015 were presented in the paper. Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), the computable general equilibrium model was used in the research. Simulation-based analysis was carried out in four variants differing in the level of the reduction of customs tariffs and referring respectively: to the position of the European Commission of 28 October 2005, postulates of G-20 countries, proposition of the United States of America and for the case, where the liberalisation of agricultural trade does not progress. It was shown that the increase of liberalisation tendencies in world agricultural trade may lead to the decrease of export value and the increase of the value of agri-food import to/from Poland, and in consequence lead to the deterioration of the trade balance value. It needs to be stressed though, that by 2015 it should not bring about a significant threat to the positive foreign turnover balance in the Polish agri-food sector.