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2 Economic Themes

2 2015

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Determinants of Currency Substitution in Southeast European Countries / Determinante Valutne Supstitucije U Zemljama Jugoistočne Evrope

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Pepić M. , Marinković S. , Radović O. , Malović M.

Economic Themes

2015

tom 53

nr 2

162-184

Currency substitution is widespread in less developed countries. Since it increases financial vulnerability and limits the effectiveness of monetary policy, it is often in the focus of scientists and experts. In this paper, we analyze the importance of euroization determinants in Serbia and neighboring countries - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Romania and Croatia for the period 2003-2014. We examine the impact of domestic inflation, nominal exchange rate of the domestic currency against the euro, interest rate spread on domestic and foreign currency, foreign currency inflow in the form of foreign direct investments and exports, as well as the euroization of banks’financial resources on the degree of loan euroization. The results obtained by multiple regression panel methods confirm the statistical significance and assumed direction of the influence of all analyzed variables except inflation and current account balance.

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on World Trade/ Uticaj Globalne Finansijske Krize Na Svetsku Trgovinu

100%

Čerović S. Č. , Pepić M. , Petrović P. , Čerović S. Č.

Economic Themes

2015

tom 52

nr 1

13-32

Modern economic and financial crisis has caused a significant reduction in trade flows, for the first time since the Second World War, so it is often referred to as the trade crisis. Despite many benefits and disadvantages of liberalization as key features of modern age, the current crisis has led to a reassessment of these positions affecting the introduction of protectionist measures and the strengthening of regional ties and alliances. The question that arises is how the future trade flows will look like and whether regional integration will prevail over multilateral and liberalized trading system. The financial crisis quickly became the economic crisis that hit all sectors. The first visible effects of the crisis were reflected in a sharp fall in trade flows, and conditioned drop in demand, which led to a fall in production and employment. The first reactions of numerous countries were protectionist measures in order to protect national interests. This again aroused debate between proponents of liberalism and protectionism, where the effects and the origins of the crisis favored the latter. Economic decision makers, faced with the pressing economic problems, tried to mitigate them (at least in the short-term) turning more to regional partners, and less to the world market.

Savremena ekonomska i finansijska kriza uticala je značajno na smanjenje trgovinskih tokova prvi put posle Drugog svetskog rata, tako da je mnogi nazivaju trgovinskom krizom. I pored brojnih koristi i nedostataka liberalizacije kao ključnog savremenih obeležja, postojeća kriza dovela je do preispitivanja ovih stavova utičući na uvođenje mera protekcionizma i na jačanje brojnih regionalnih veza i saveza. Pitanje koje se nameće je kako će izgledati trgovinski tokovi u budućnosti i da li će regionalne integracije imati prevagu nad multilateralnim i liberalizovanim trgovinskim sistemom. Finansijska kriza je, vrlo brzo, postala ekonomska kriza koja je pogodila sve sektore. Prvi vidljivi efekti krize manifestovali su se u snažnom padu trgovinskih tokova, uslovljenim padom tražnje, što je dovelo do pada proizvodnje i zaposlenosti. Prve reakcije mnogih država bile su mere protekcionizma, kako bi se zaštitili nacionalni interesi. Ovo je ponovo aktuelizovalo debatu pobornika liberalizma i protekcionizma, gde su efekti i nastanak krize išli u prilog ovih drugih. Donosioci ekonomskih odluka suočeni su sa gorućim ekonomskim problemima, pokušavali su da ih ublaže (makar na kratak rok) okrećući se regionalnim partnerima, a manje prema svetskom tržištu.