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1 Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)

1 2005

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SLOVAK AGRICULTURE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

100%

Ciaian P. , Pokrivčák J. , Bartová Ľ.

nr 7

736-752

We build a Slovak sectoral dynamic partial equilibrium econometric model based on EU GOLD model. It is used to analyse the development of the Slovak agricultural markets after EU accession. Simulation results for cereals, oilseeds and meats are provided in this article. Two scenarios are analysed: non-accession baseline and accession with adoption of single area payment scheme. EU accession is expected to increase prices of most products, the biggest increase of prices will occur in animal sector. Because of the higher prices consumption will go down. Decrease of the consumption will be mitigated by income growth. Production will not increase substantially due to decoupling of the direct payments. Trade balance for majority of the products will improve.