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Some Probabilistic and Statistical Properties of the Seismic Regime of Zemmouri (Algeria) Seismoactive Zone

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Baddari K. , Bellalem F. , Baddari I. , Makdeche S.

Acta Geophysica

2016

tom Vol. 64, no. 5

1275--1310

Statistical tests have been used to adjust the Zemmouri seismic data using a distribution function. The Pareto law has been used and the probabilities of various expected earthquakes were computed. A mathematical expression giving the quantiles was established. The extreme values limiting law confirmed the accuracy of the adjustment method. Using the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was made to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes. The seismic structure has been characterized by the slope of the recurrence plot γ, fractal dimension D, concentration parameter Ksr, Hurst exponents Hr and Ht. The values of D, γ, Ksr, Hr, and Ht diminished many months before the principal seismic shock (M = 6.9) of the studied seismoactive zone has occurred. Three stages of the deformation of the geophysical medium are manifested in the variation of the coefficient G% of the clustering of minor seismic events.

Probabilistic model to forecast earthquakes in the Zemmouri (Algeria) seismoactive area on the basis of moment magnitude scale distribution functions

100%

Baddari K. , Makdeche S. , Bellalem F.

Acta Geophysica

2013

tom Vol. 61, no. 1

60--83

Based on the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was developed to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes in the seis- moactive area of Zemmouri, Algeria. Firstly, the distributions of earthquake magnitudes Mi were described using the distribution function F0(m), which adjusts the magnitudes considered as independent random variables. Secondly, the obtained result, i.e., the distribution function F0(m) of the variables Mi was used to deduce the distribution functions G(x) and H(y) of the variables Yi = LogM0,i andZi = M0,i, where (Yi)i and (Zi)i are independent. Thirdly,some forecast for moments of the future earthquakes in the studied area is given.