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The author proposes a “hybrid” approach to the issue of global order, combining in his study theoretical and practical issues. From theoretical point of view he is focusing on crucial ideas important in normative, liberal (institutions) and neo-realistic school of thinking on global affairs and global order, leading us to the conclusion that in normative sense currently there is a mess and nobody’s really ready to propose a kind of “global codex” (Z. Bauman), which is necessary for a globalised world of “network societies” (M. Castells); in institutional sense we have some new phenomena, like G-20, BRICS or Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as further deepening process of European integration after the Treaty of Lisbon, which is theoretically not absorbed yet; and finally in real politics one can observe an important Powers Shift, from Atlantic to Pacific, at least in economic sphere. According to the Author’s final conclusions, we are facing two principal challenges (meaning humankind): deeply mixed transnationalisation (i.e. diminishing of the role of nation states, including major powers) and quickly-growing consciousness of some global challenges (proliferation of nuclear arms, climate change, shrinking of raw and energy sources, other environmental issues, etc.). Thus, in his opinion, experts on security issues and probably also researchers of global order should prepare a kind of “cooperative order” idea, an idea which, however – for the first time in decades or perhaps even Centuries – should be proposed not only by the West. This is the essence of the new global order which is emerging after the collapse of the global (Western) markets in September 2008. It is too early too judge yet whether this particular moment is a real fault-line leading to creation of a new order, but there are many signs prompting us to conclude so.
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The process of European integration has not been finalised by a so-called finalité politique i.e. a supranational entity, probably in form of a federation. This entity, expected to play an independent and crucial role in the global arena, is still not created yet. At the same time, the crisis on global markets in 2008 and its aftermath has created many new and unprecedented challenges. Crisis as such is nothing new in the history of European integration, in fact it has been stated that real progress went ‘from crisis to crisis’ (J.Delors). This means that only new challenges push forward the whole machin¬ery. The situation after 2008 is different however, as at this moment the European Union is challenged by a multilayer crisis. Namely, the EU currently has problems with: 1) Leadership and strategic vision; 2) Economic crisis in the Eurozone, together with overwhelming domestic debts in the so-called PIGS countries, mainly of the Mediter¬ranean region; 3) Institutions (the ‘democratic deficit’), and even 4) Axiology, i.e. a common system of values, which are being frequently and openly challenged in many Member States by various political forces. Thus the EU today, in the middle of the sec¬ond decade of the twenty-first century, is staying just in front of the threshold, or rather a fault-line, and faces a cardinal dilemma: how to deepen integration, including the cru¬cial CFSP, amongst a growing tide of renationalisation? One thing seems to be obvious, however. The longer will be the crisis (multi-layered!), the greater will be the opportu¬nities for anti-integration forces and processes. Only strong leadership with a reformist agenda can bring us out of this Catch-22 situation. Without courage and vision, the EU may be doomed to become an ‘economic giant and political pygmy’ again. Is that the status we wish as we face the challenges from the so-called emerging markets and in an era when a new balance of (economic) power is also emerging after 2008?
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This article proposes a ‘hybrid’ approach to the issue of global order, mixing theoretical and practical issues in the analysis carried out. From the theoretical point of view, it focuses on crucial ideas important in the normative, liberal (institutional) and neo-realistic schools of thinking on global affairs and global order. The analysis leads to the conclusion that, in the normative sense, there is currently a messand nobody is ready and able to propose the kind of ‘global code’ (Z.Bauman) necessary and appropriate for a globalised world of ‘network societies’ (M.Castells). In the institutional sense, today we are witness to a series of new phenomena, like the G-20, BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as the further deepening of the process of European integration following the Treaty of Lisbon, which is not yet theoretically absorbed. Finally, in world of geopolitics one can observe an important power shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific, at least in the economic sphere. According to the Author, as stated in his final conclusions, there are two major challenges ahead of the world: deeply mixed transnationalisation (i.e. the diminishing of the role of nation states, including major powers), and the rapidly growing consciousness of real global challenges (proliferation of nuclear arms, climate change, shrinking of raw materials and energy sources, environmental issues, etc.). Thus, in the author’s opinion, experts in security issues and scholars specialising in international relations should prepare a kind of ‘cooperative order’ idea – an idea, which, however, for the first time in decades and maybe even centuries, should be proposed not by the West alone. This is the essence of the new global order which has been emerging after the collapse of the global (Western) markets in September 2008. It is still too early to judge if this particular moment is a true fault line leading to the creation of a new global order, but there are many signs leading to such a conclusion.
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People’s Republic of China (PRC), especially after 2010, partially in response to its unprecedented growth, and partially as the answer to the global crisis of 2008, has recently started to change its internal model of development (crucial, but not in focus of this study), as well as its external strategy, which is the center of research here, and which in the form of One Belt, One Road (OBOR) vision is already a classical geostrategic case. The current leadership of the fifth generation with Xi Jinping as paramount leader has a blueprint: 1. To create a middle class until 2021, 2. Of peaceful reunification with Taiwan; 3. Of the “great rejuvenation of Chinese nation” until October 2049. If successfully implemented, this strategy will definitely change not only China, but also the global landscape. This study is trying to explain what really has happened recently in PRC, why it has happened, and what is the meaning of those strategic changes in the Chinese leadership’s approach both to PRC itself, and to the global arena.
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Content available Chiny moim drugim domem. Jan Rowiński in memoriam
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