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EN
In the 1990s, fertility was dropping rapidly in Poland. According to the GUS and the UN projections, low fertility may continue in the next decades. The procre- ative behaviour changes irreversibly affect the age structure of population. If the fertility level as low as it is today continued, the number of births would be ultimately reduced by almost half compared with the present numbers. However, the structure of population would be changing gradually. First the number of the pre-school children would change and then of those at school age. The high variant of the UN World Population Prospects is the only one where the number of the children aged 0–4 years is growing to the year 2020. If fertility does not change their number will, however, drop dramatically from ca 1.8 million that we have today to below 1 million in 2050. Decreasing fertility may distort the demographic structure in the long term by re- ducing the share of children and contributing to a relatively overrepresented proportion of old persons. Because of fertility falling from the 1990s and the appearance of baby boomers and baby busters, the size of the working-age population (15–64 years) will grow smaller after 2015. The aging process will also continue. The median age will grow to approx. 50 years in 2050. The dependency ratio will also increase and there will be 70 working-age persons per 100 persons aged 15–64 years, instead of slightly more than 40 that we have today.
EN
The classic model of evaluation consists of three levels: analysis of the orders of the training program, methods of measure progress in achieving objectives and analysis of the results of education. In the case of teaching Demography, regardless of the scope, the objectives of education refers to the understanding and proper application of concepts, knowledge of the construction of individual measures and their ability to use and, sometimes, their calculation, indicating the sources of statistical information on population relevant to the issues to be taken, knowledge of factors influencing the individual demographic processes and analyzing the experience of individual processes. Students have the knowledge and skills gained in other subjects so it is necessary to carry out the diagnostic evaluation. The scope of formative evaluation is to provide information about the current degree of the knowledge and skills of students. The paper will be presented to methods of evaluation at each lavel of learning, including the final assessment as a summary of the results of the student's work throughout the course.
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EN
The aging of population is largely caused by falling fertility. To find out how fertility affects the share of the elderly people in the population, four variants of the UN World Population Prospects 2010 for Poland and Europe were examined, as well as selected indicators of population aging. The relatively high fertility and comparatively short life expectancy in Poland until the end of 1980s explain why its population aged much more slowly than other populations in Europe. In the last two decades the share of the elderly people kept increasing, mostly because of the deep decline in the number of births. For almost a decade now Poland has been one of the demographically old countries, although the aging process is relatively less pronounced in Poland than in Italy or Germany. In the medium variant of the UN forecast Polish fertility will be growing for the next few decades, but its level will not be high enough to ensure the minimum population replacement. Only in the high variant its growth will lead to rates of population reproduction higher than the minimum level. This situation might take place as early as the first half of the 2020s. The analysis of particular indicators illustrating the progress of demographic aging leads to a conclusion that even high fertility will not rejuvenate the age structure of Polish population, but it may considerably slow down the process of its aging.
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