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Kurs EUR/ITL w kontekście presji spekulacyjnej na włoskiego lira. Perspektywy opuszczenia przez Włochy strefy euro

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Gruszczyński M. , Dąbrowska-Gruszczyńska D.

tom 389

7-19

Wraz z narastaniem zadłużenia publicznego we Włoszech podnoszone są kwestie możliwego rozpadu strefy euro, wprowadzenia dwóch walut dla północy i południa czy przywrócenia lira włoskiego. Celem pracy było oszacowanie kursu cienia lira włoskiego względem euro w okresie członkostwa Włoch w strefie wspólnego pieniądza. Postawiona została następująca hipoteza badawcza: kurs cień poprawnie odwzorowuje potencjalny kurs rynkowy, który powinien być kwotowany po ponownym wprowadzeniu lira we Włoszech. W pracy zastosowano metodologię kursu cienia połączoną z koncepcją indeksu presji spekulacyjnej.

Problems with rising of public debt and fiscal stability in Italy facilitated discussions about the disintegration of the euro zone, introduction two currencies for the north and south, or restoration of Italian lira. The aim of the study is to estimate the shadow exchange rate of Italian lira against the euro during Italy’s membership in the euro zone. The research hypothesis is that shadow exchange rate correctly estimates market rate during the era of controlled currency, suggesting new equilibrium rate after the introduction of Italian lira. The shadow exchange rate methodology combined with the concept of an index of speculative pressure was applied in this research.

Market pressure on currencies in crises. Shadow exchange rate experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015

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Gruszczyński M. , Dąbrowska-Gruszczyńska K.

2017

tom 30

58-69

Aim/purpose – The aim of this article is to present two cases of exchange rate controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The paper also examines the problem of presence and evaluation of shadow exchange rate in both countries. Design/methodology/approach – The shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of not only exchange rate movements but also changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as interest rate differentials. The research sample covers Switzerland 2001-2016 and Argentina 2006-2016 (for shadow exchange rate simulation: 2011-2014 and 2011-2015, respectively). Findings – The conclusions drawn from international experience and conducted empirical analysis are positive. In both cases, shadow exchange rates were close to market rates after the removal of controls. During the restrictions periods shadow rates followed the intuition given by speculative pressure index concept (and by monetary approach, simultaneously). Research implications/limitations – The research suggests that market forces in both countries were still able to restore exchange rates to market values after the period of control. However, it is obvious that it is very difficult to prove that shadow rates were always determined by economical forces and close to their long-term equilibrium values. Originality/value/contribution – The original approach combines two important economic concepts – the idea of shadow exchange rate and the methodology of index of speculative pressure. Combined together they can help to analyze two interesting and relatively new cases of foreign exchange controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The results can be valuable for economists, researchers and politicians who support or reject the idea of controlling macroeconomic parameters in modern, open economy.