Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

1

Maintaining technical readiness in the context of military exploitation systems

100%

Borucka A.

Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences

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2023

|

tom Vol. 71, nr 5

art. no. e146619

EN

Readiness and reliability is a special attribute of rescue systems (army, police, fire service), where performance at the highest level is more important than economic efficiency. For this reason, special attention is given to the process of renewal of technical objects. In such systems, a preventive strategy is most often used. Though this is a safe model, it does not always take into account the specifics of the use of a technical object. Moreover, in some situations, it forces the end of life of a device that could still continue to operate as intended. The article analyzes precisely such technical objects, removed from operation after just 10 years of use. It was shown that such approach is not justified and that modern management strategies must be implemented also in relation to machinery and equipment operating in rescue systems. The most important achievements of the article are the use of reliability analysis methods in the systems where it is not common, and the indication of the benefits of such analysis. It has been shown that knowing the characteristics of reliability, you can consciously control each process and make decisions in this regard based on the technical condition of the facility and not on instructions. In the case under study, this would make it possible to undermine the decision to withdraw the analyzed objects from operation.

2

Application of ARIMA Models for the Analysis of Utilization Process of Military Technical Objects

100%

Borucka A.

Logistics and Transport

|

2018

|

tom 37

13-22

EN

The newest solutions in Polish Armed Forces are implemented gradually and focus mainly on soldiers’ combat readiness. Many concurrent processes occur, for which proper analysis and interpretation could constitute command process and task realization support; however poor and standing (paper) record seems to be an obstacle in their modelling. Therefore the author of the article tried to depict the process of military technical objects exploitation based on archived data according to present methods of documents preparation, circuit and record, applicable in Polish Armed Forces. Based on that, the method of research the readiness of aircraft ships from military air base, powered by ARIMA model, was proposed. Using empirical data of two years of exploitation, the identification of researched time series, and then a few models estimation was made. Finally, the best model was chosen and verified.

3

Influence of meteorological conditions on road accidents. A model Indexed by: for observations with excess zeros

63%

Borucka A. , Pyza D.

Eksploatacja i Niezawodność

|

2021

|

tom Vol. 23, no. 3

586--592

EN

Road accidents are one of the basic road safety determinants. Most research covers large territorial areas. The results of such research do not take into account the differences between individual regions, which often leads to incorrect results and their interpretation. What makes it difficult to conduct analyses in a narrow territorial area is the small number of observations. The narrowing of the research area means that the number of accidents in time units is often very low. There are many zero observations in the data sets, which may affect the reliability of the research results. Such data are usually aggregated, which leads to information loss. The authors have therefore applied a model that addresses such problems. They proposed a method that does not require data aggregation and allows for the analysis of sets with an excess of zero observations. The presented model can be implemented in different territorial areas.

4

Identification of the personality factors of the driver and road safety

63%

Stasiak-Cieślak B. , Borucka A.

Gospodarka Materiałowa i Logistyka

|

2022

|

tom nr 10

15--20

EN

The study presents an overview of the available research results concerning the analysis of the impact of factors characteristic for the behavior of road users that influence road accidents. Intellectual fitness, personality and temperament as well as psychomotor skills were analyzed. The aim of the article is to present the current results in terms of selected psychological factors, i.e. intellectual performance, personality and temperament traits as well as psychomotor performance in the field of road safety. It is also the basis for setting directions for further research in this field.

PL

Opracowanie przedstawia przegląd dostępnych wyników badań dotyczących analizy oddziaływania czynników charakterystycznych dla zachowań uczestników ruchu drogowego, mających wpływ na wypadki drogowe. Analizie poddano sprawność intelektualną, osobowość i temperament oraz zdolności psychomotoryczne. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie dotychczasowych wyników w zakresie wybranych czynników psychologicznych, tj. sprawności intelektualnej, cech osobowości i temperamentu oraz sprawności psychomotorycznej w zakresie bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowego. Jest to również podstawa do wyznaczania kierunków dalszych badań w tym zakresie.

5

Ocena bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowego (BRD) w Polsce

63%

Grzelak M. , Borucka A.

Systemy Logistyczne Wojsk

|

2019

|

tom Vol. 51, no. 2

15--25

PL

Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie obecnego stanu bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowego w Polsce, a także w odniesieniu do sytuacji innych krajów Unii Europejskiej. Omówiono teoretyczne podstawy gromadzenia danych o zdarzeniach drogowych oraz scharakteryzowano wskaźniki stosowane do oceny poziomu bezpieczeństwa. Dodatkowo, przedstawiono sugestie, które mogą wpłynąć na poprawę sytuacji na drogach.

EN

The aim of the article is to present the current state of road traffic safety in Poland in voivodeship terms and relation to other European Union countries. The theoretical basis for collecting data on road incidents was discussed and the indicators used to assess the level of safety were characterized. In addition, suggestions have been made that could improve the traffic situation.

6

Technologia radiowa w magazynie broni

63%

Borucka A. , Ślesicka A.

Systemy Logistyczne Wojsk

|

2015

|

tom Vol. 43, no. 2

6--18

PL

Niniejszy artykuł ma za celu zapoznać ze stanem pododdziałowych magazynów broni, oraz przedstawić nieefektywnie realizowany proces przyjmowania i wydawania. Zostaną przedstawione wady aktualnych procedur oraz możliwe rozwiązanie zauważonego problemu, którego wdrożenie i wykorzystanie mogłoby skutkować znacznym usprawnieniem funkcjonowania. Przeprowadzona dyskusja nad zasadnością wdrożenia technologii RFID jako metody automatycznej identyfikacji przedstawi jego słabe i mocne strony oraz pozamilitarne zastosowania.

EN

This article is intended to refer with the state military weapon storage and provide ineffectively implemented the process of receiving and dispensing weapons. It will be presented disadvantages of the current solutions and the possible solution of the problem observed fact that the implementation and use could result in a significant improvement of the functioning of such storage. Conducted a discussion on the legitimacy of the implementation of RFID technology as a method of automatic identification will present its strengths and weaknesses and non-military applications.

7

Women's military service in Poland in the perspective of recruiting women to the Military University of Technology

63%

Pęzioł A. , Borucka A.

Systemy Logistyczne Wojsk

|

2024

|

tom Vol. 60, no. 1

5--22

EN

Since 1999, Poland has become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. The aftermath of this event was that women were allowed to serve in all military positions. At the same time, military academies gave women the opportunity to study on terms previously available only to men. The forerunner in this area was the Military University of Technology (WAT), which not only was the first to open the Academy to female cadets, but also educated the largest number of female officers. The existing research gap regarding the process of transformation of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland in the context of educating a highly qualified officer corps, taking into account fundamental changes in ensuring women have access to all officer positions, required an analysis of the process of recruitment and education of women for military service by the largest military university in Poland. Now, after 20 years of training, it is possible to evaluate this process, which became the purpose of this article. The question of how the number of women at the WAT changed in the process of recruitment and enrollment was adopted as a research problem. The intention of the Authors is not only to identify existing trends, but also to highlight the distinguished role of the Military University of Technology in this area. It was assumed (research hypothesis) that not only the interest of women in military studies is increasing, but also the number of women choosing technical education is increasing, as well. The article uses research methods in relation to the cognitive and praxeological research problem: systematic literature review, quantitative methods and qualitative methods, comparative methods, concretization, and formalization methods. The research conducted clearly indicates an upward trend in women’s interest not only in military studies, but also in studying at the Academy in general. Although some fluctuations over a period of more than 20 years are noticeable, they are due to economic, demographic, or political factors. Nevertheless, the article clearly shows the significant role of the Military Academy of Technology in educating female officers and thus meeting the requirements of a modern, professional army.

PL

Od 1999 roku Polska jest członkiem Sojuszu Północnoatlantyckiego. Pokłosiem tego wydarzenia było umożliwienie kobietom służby na wszystkich stanowiskach wojskowych. Jednocześnie akademie wojskowe dały możliwość studiowania kobietom na zasadach dostępnych dotąd jedynie mężczyznom. Prekursorem w tym obszarze była Wojskowa Akademia Techniczna (WAT), która nie tylko jako pierwsza otworzyła mury dla pań podchorąży, ale również wykształciła największą liczbę oficerów – kobiet. Ist- niejąca luka badawcza dotycząca procesu przemian Sił Zbrojnych Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej w kontekście kształcenia wysoko wykfalifikowanego korpusu oficerskiego z uwzględnieniem fundamentalnych zmian w zakresie zapewnienia kobietom możliwości dostępu do wszystkich stanowisk oficerskich, wymagała podjęcia analizy procesu rekrutacji i kształcenia kobiet na rzecz służby wojskowej przez największą wojskową uczelnię wyższą w Polsce. Obecnie, po 20 latach kształcenia możliwe jest dokonanie ewaluacji tego procesu, co stało się celem niniejszego artykułu. Jako problem badawczy przyjęto pytanie: jak zmieniała się liczba kobiet na WAT w procesie rekrutacji i przyjęcia na studia. Intencją Autorek jest nie tylko wskazanie istniejących trendów, ale również podkreślenie ogromnej roli Wojskowej Akademii Technicznej w tym obszarze. Założono (hipoteza badawcza), że nie tylko zainteresowanie kobiet studiami wojskowymi jest coraz większe, ale również zwiększa się liczba kobiet wybierających wykształcenie techniczne. W artykule zostały wykorzystane metody badawcze w odniesieniu do problemu badawczego poznawczego oraz prakseologicznego: systematyczny przegląd literatury, metody ilościowe oraz metody jakościowe, metody porównawcze, metody konkretyzacji i formalizacji. Przeprowadzone badania jednoznacznie wskazują na tendencję wzrostową zainteresowania kobiet nie tylko kierunkami wojskowymi, ale i studiowaniem na Akademii w ogóle. Zauważalne są wprawdzie pewne fluktuacje na przestrzeni ponad 20-letniego okresu, jednak wynikają one z czynników gospodarczych, demograficznych czy politycznych. Niemniej jednak artykuł wyraźnie pokazuje znaczącą rolę Wojskowej Akademii Technicznej w kształceniu kobiet – oficerów i tym samym spełnianiu wymagań nowoczesnej, profesjonalnej armii.

8

Transport intermodalny w Polsce w świetle europejsko – azjatyckich szlaków przewozowych

63%

Borucka A. , Jednas M.

Systemy Logistyczne Wojsk

|

2017

|

tom Vol. 47, no. 2

17--29

PL

Przewóz intermodalny wpisuje się w zrównoważony rozwój transportu a także sprzyja rozwiązaniu wielu problemów z którymi ma aktualnie do czynienia cała branża transportowa. W niniejszym artykule dokonano analizy przewozów kontenerowych realizowanych pomiędzy Azją i Europą na przykładzie niemieckiego operatora logistycznego – firmy RTSB GmbH.

EN

Intermodal transport is a part of sustainable transport development and it encourages more problems solving which bother the whole transporting branch. In this paper the container transport between Asia and Europe was analyzed on the example of deutsche logistic enterprise called RTSB GmbH.

9

An Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Number of Safety Incidents in Civil Aviation

63%

Guzanek P. , Borucka A.

Safety & Defense

|

2021

|

tom 2

105--118

EN

Aviation is the youngest of the transport industries, yet despite its short history, it is considered one of the most important spheres of transport, both in terms of passenger and cargo transportation. Civil aviation is used by an increasing number of people, and the number of aircraft used by airlines around the world continues to grow. An inherent element that is a particularly important aspect of this mode of transportation is security. In civil aviation, there are numerous dangers associated with events occurring before the flight, during the flight, as well as those associated with the landing process. The events need to be controlled and their causes actively sought and ultimately prevented. The Polish Civil Aviation Authority, as part of the creation of the National Civil Aviation Safety Program, developed the National Safety Plan 2020-2023. The document covers threats identified in the Systemic, European, and National Areas. They are characterized and classified based on the materiality (significance) of the event. The aim of this article is to characterize and analyze selected factors (e.g. collisions with birds, helicopter events) that affect the number of safety incidents in civil aviation. The background of the study was the analysis and synthesis of the literature on the subject, while the main research method was the statistical analysis of historical data on aviation incidents. The data provided in Poland's National Security Plan 2020-2023 were used to distinguish the factors associated with the threats present and synthetically evaluate their impact. The analyses made it possible to identify areas of particular safety risks and form the basis for further detailed research.

10

Analiza rozwoju logistyki w przedsiębiorstwie produkcyjnym branży spożywczej

63%

Borucka A. , Ryrych S.

Systemy Logistyczne Wojsk

|

2016

|

tom Vol. 44, no. 1

300--312

PL

Celem artykułu jest analiza funkcjonowania nowopowstałej komórki logistycznej w przedsiębiorstwie produkcyjnym. Badania zostały przeprowadzone w oparciu o zrealizowane w 2014 roku przewozy. Przy pomocy metody regresji wielorakiej utworzono model procesu transportowego, który zbadano pod kątem wiarygodności. W celu odnalezienia błędów w funkcjonowaniu logistyki przedstawiono także sposób pozyskiwania, ewidencjonowania i interpretacji danych w przedsiębiorstwie. Analizując powyższe, została przedstawiona propozycja usprawnienia procesu gromadzenia danych, której kluczowym punktem jest ściślejsze powiązanie działu logistyki z innymi komórkami przedsiębiorstwa.

EN

The aim of the article is an analysis of functioning of a new logistics department in a production company. The analysis were carried out on the basis of realized shipments in 2014. With the use of a multiple regression method, the transportation process model was created and then its reliability was verified. In order to detect mistakes in the logistics’ functioning, methods of capturing, recording and interpreting of data were presented. Taking the above into account, the proposal of improvement was presented. Its crucial element is the closer connection of logistics department with other departments in the company.

11

Mathematical Evaluation of Passenger and Freight Rail Transport as Viewed Through the COVID-19 Pandemic and the War in Ukraine Situation

63%

Borucka A. , Kozłowski E.

Advances in Science and Technology. Research Journal

|

2024

|

tom Vol. 18, no 4

238--249

EN

The main objective of the study was to develop a method for identifying the com-ponents of a time series disrupted by crisis events, allowing for evaluation, comparison and short-term forecasting of the impact of such situations. The article, using mathematical modelling, analyses and evaluates the impact of the pandemic and war on rail transport using Poland as an example. Three methods of local trend matching were used: Locally Estimated Trend, Locally Estimated Trend with Seasonal Components, Locally Estimated Trend with Locally Estimated Seasonal Components. The study showed that the effects of the crisis are still felt today, but their impact on in-dividual types of transport varied, and what's more, differences were also visible depending on the item being transported. Passengers, despite the introduction of high sanitary standards, severely limited their mobility. The freight transport market turned out to be more resistant to the impact of the pandemic, but both the pandemic and the war in Ukraine affected the volume of goods transported. The article presents a method that allows to identify time series disturbed by crisis events and therefore difficult to describe and make reliable forecasts. The method proposed by the authors is an innovative answer to the problems of identifying very variable series and can also be used in the analysis of other issues in which time series have been disturbed in a sudden and unexpected way.

12

Modeling the dynamics of changes in CO2 emissions from Polish road transport in the context of COVID-19 and decarbonization requirements

63%

Borucka A. , Kozłowski E.

Combustion Engines

|

2023

|

tom R. 62, nr 4

63--70

EN

Emissions from transport account for 20-25% of anthropogenic global carbon dioxide emissions [17, 37], with more than 70% coming from road transport, making it an extremely important topic in the context of decarbonization. The aim of the article is to analyze the trend of CO2 generated from road transport, taking into account various sources, and also to examine how reduced mobility during the pandemic affected the emissions at the time. For this purpose, a time series containing observations up to the pandemic outbreak and a time series containing additional observations from the pandemic period were analyzed. For each time series, a trend was determined and described by a polynomial and then verified to see if the pandemic phenomenon significantly affects a parameter of the proposed model, using appropriate statistical tests.

13

Predicting the seasonality of passengers in railway transport based on time series for proper railway development

63%

Borucka A. , Guzanek P.

Transport Problems

|

2022

|

tom T. 17, z. 1

51--61

EN

Planning the frequency of rail services is closely related to forecasting the number of passengers and is part of the comprehensive analysis of railway systems. Most of the research presented in the literature focuses only on selected areas of this system (e.g. urban agglomerations, urban underground transport, transfer nodes), without presenting a comprehensive evaluation that would provide full knowledge and diagnostics of this mode of transport (i.e. railway transport). Therefore, this article presents methods for modelling passenger flow in rail traffic at a national level (using the example of Poland). Time series models were used to forecast the number of passengers in rail transport. The error, trend, and seasonality (ETS) exponential smoothing model and the model belonging to the ARMA class were used. An adequate model was selected, allowing future values to be forecast. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model follows the tested series better than the ETS model and is characterised by the lowest values of forecast errors in relation to the test set. The forecast based on the ARIMA model is characterised by a better detection of the trends and seasonality of the series. The results of the present study are considered to form the basis for solving potential rail traffic problems, which depend on the volume of passenger traffic, at the central level. The methods presented can also be implemented in other systems with similar characteristics, which affects the usability of the presented solutions.

14

Selected polynomial identification techniques to evaluate maritime transport trends around Covid-19

63%

Borucka A. , Kozłowski E.

Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska

|

2023

|

tom z. 120

51--68

EN

The Covid-19 pandemic has drastically affected the transport sector, because of the restrictions introduced to limit the spread of the threat. They concerned primarily passenger traffic, but trade in goods also faced completely new challenges, related to increased consumption and the dynamic development of e-commerce on the one hand and restrictions related to the pandemic and sealing borders on the other. One of the most susceptible to fluctuations in international trade is the maritime economy, which has been analysed in this article. It was checked how the global threat affected sea traffic in terms of gross weight of goods handled in main ports. The aim of the study was to characterize the impact of the pandemic on sea transport depending on the type of ship and to evaluate the current state of sea transport in the context of the level shaped by forecasts based on observations from before the coronavirus pandemic. The authors' assumption was to check whether the rail transport market has already reached the level it could reach in the absence of the virus threat. The use of a polynomial function was proposed for the study. Time series containing observations up to the outbreak of the pandemic and forecasts based on them, as well as time series containing additional observations from the pandemic period were analysed. The study results obtained allowed to conclude how the global crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic affected the cargo traffic in the sea transport, expressed by the mass of goods transshipped in major ports, depending on the individual types of ships.

15

Information in the decision-making process

63%

Ściborek Z. , Borucka A.

Systemy Logistyczne Wojsk

|

2022

|

tom Vol. 56, no. 1

147--160

EN

The thesis that the variability of conditions in which organizations operate has an impact on the decisions made about their functioning is the starting point for achieving the research objective and presenting the research findings. The objective of the research was to demonstrate the importance of the information system in the organization and to visualize the impact of information on the decision-making process, also in terms of shaping the future. The analysis of a number of theoretical studies has led to conclusions that unequivocally prove that every decision should be based on reliable information. This is strongly emphasized in the article. The main methods used were literature analysis, synthesis, mathematical modeling and desk research. In addition, the paper presents tools for describing the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of random phenomenon, i.e., for assessing the amount of information conveyed by the observation of random phenomenon and for comparing two variables with different information potential. The analyses conducted clearly indicate that decision making and information must be closely linked. The results of the research inquiries in the publication also indicate the role to be played by the information system in the organization. It contains the state-ment that no decision can be made without information. The approach adopted in the article allowed for presentation of essential research findings, while providing a basis for further, extended research on this extremely important and topical issue, especially in the context of the internationalization of a number of phe-nomena and processes.

PL

Teza, że zmienność warunków funkcjonowania organizacji nie pozostaje bez wpływu na dokonywane rozstrzygnięcia związane z ich funkcjonowaniem, jest punktem wyjścia do osiągnięcia założonego celu i prezentacji wyników badań. Celem podjętych badań było wykazanie znaczenia systemu informacyjnego w organizacji i unaocznienie wpływu informacji na proces decyzyjny, także pod kątem kształtowania przyszłości. W wyniku analizy wielu opracowań teoretycznych, także zawierających wyniki przeprowadzonych badań, wysnuto liczne wnioski. One to jednoznacznie dowodzą, że podstawą każdego rozstrzygnięcia powinna być wiarygodna informacja. Jest to mocno podkreślone w artykule. Ukazano również potrzebę podejmowania działań ukierunkowanych na zdobycie, w miarę szybko, nieodzownych informacji, aby stworzyć podstawy do korzystnych rozstrzygnięć dla firm, które funkcjonują w zmieniających się warunkach. Nieodzowne są także wysokie kompetencje informacyjne menedżerów. Przeprowadzone analizy jednoznacznie wskazują, że decydowanie i informacja muszą być ze sobą ściśle pozwiązane. Wyniki dociekań naukowych zawarte w publikacji wskazują również na rolę, jaką ma spełniać system informacyjny w organizacji, który choć składa się z trzech etapów, to są one logicznie powiązane, fazy te charakteryzuje pragmatyzm naukowy. Zawarto twierdzenie, że bez informacji nie ma decyzji. W artykule przyjęte podejście umożliwiło uzyskanie przekrojowego charakteru prezentacji wyników badań, dając jednocześnie podstawy do dalszych, poszerzonych badań tego niezwykle istotnego oraz aktualnego problemu, zwłaszcza w kontekście umiędzynarodowiania wielu zjawisk i procesów.

16

Istota i znaczenie służby przygotowawczej i szkolenia rezerw

63%

Borucka A. , Wielgosik M.

Systemy Logistyczne Wojsk

|

2016

|

tom Vol. 45, no. 2

51--66

PL

Genezą Narodowych Sił Rezerwowych były zmiany strukturalne i organizacyjne, jakim ulegały Siły Zbrojne Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej na przestrzeni ostatnich lat. Spowodowały one zmniejszenie liczebności żołnierzy i wymusiły poszukiwanie nowych rozwiązań w aspekcie ich pozyskania. W artykule przestawiono podstawy prawne dotyczące funkcjonowania służby żołnierzy rezerwy a także jej istotę i główne zasady oraz omówiono aktualną sytuację dotyczącą procesu szkolenia.

EN

The genesis of National Reserve Forces was structural and organizational changes in Polish Armed Forces in last years. The changes caused reduction in number of soldiers and forced to seek new solutions in aspects of sourcing. In this article are shown legal footing regarding to duty of reserve soldiers and the main rules of their duty. The current situation of training process was also talked over.

17

A road safety evaluation model in the context of legislative changes

63%

Borucka A. , Sobecki G.

Transport Problems

|

2023

|

tom T. 18, z. 3

41--51

EN

Road accidents are affected by various factors, but many of them are not monitored and collected, and some of them are not even known. Important factors that are often overlooked in research are legislative issues and legal changes regulating road safety, which are the subject of the study in this article. As it is extremely difficult to prove a significant influence of these factors and, therefore, to demonstrate that the impact of legislative changes on the number of road accidents is significant, this variable was considered while analyzing the impact of other variables, which, in the authors' opinion, were the most important and, above all, known over the period in question. Day of the week, month, and year are selected. It was decided that other factors influencing the decreasing number of accidents would be included in the trend. With this assumption, the analysis of an additional variable that marks the periods of changes in legal regulations and the confirmation of its significant impact on the number of accidents will allow us to conclude that it is an important element shaping road safety.

18

Evaluation of air traffic in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic

51%

Borucka A. , Parczewski R. , Kozłowski E. , Świderski A.

Archives of Transport

|

2022

|

tom Vol. 64, iss. 4

45--57

EN

The Covid-19 pandemic unexpectedly shook the entire global economy, causing it to destabilize over a long period of time. One of the sectors that was particularly hit hard was air traffic, and the changes that have taken place in it have been unmatched by any other crisis in history. The purpose of this article was to identify the time series describing the number of airline flights in Poland in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. The article first presents selected statistics and indicators showing the situation of the global and domestic aviation market during the pandemic. Then, based on the data on the number of flights in Poland, the identification of the time series describing the number of flights by airlines was made. The discrete wavelet transformation (DWT) was used to determine the trend, while for periodicity verification, first statistical tests (Kruskal-Wallis test and Friedman test) and then spectral analysis were used. The confirmation of the existence of weekly seasonality allowed for the identification of the studied series as the sum of the previously determined trend and the seasonal component, as the mean value from the observations on a given day of the week. The proposed model was compared with the 7-order moving average model, as one of the most popular in the literature. As the obtained results showed, the model developed by the authors was better at identifying the studied series than the moving average. The errors were significantly lower, which made the presented solution more effective. This confirmed the validity of using wavelet analysis in the case of irregular behaviour of time series, and also showed that both spectral analysis and statistical tests (Kruskal-Walis and Fridman) proved successful in identifying the seasonal factor in the time series. The method used allowed for a satisfactory identification of the model for empirical data, however, it should be emphasized that the aviation services market is influenced by many variables and the forecasts and scenarios created should be updated and modified on an ongoing basis.

19

Commercial vehicles incapacity risk analysis in the transport company

51%

Niewczas A. , Mórawski Ł. , Dębicka E. , Borucka A.

Journal of KONBiN

|

2019

|

tom Vol. 49, iss. 4

321--340

EN

A proposal was presented to assess the incapacity risk of commercial vehicles performing transport tasks under market conditions. The risk assessment model in the form of cost was used, which is based on the determination of operational efficiency, referring the probable costs of ensuring the reliability of the transport system to the estimated threshold income. It includes costs: incidental repairs, unplanned downtime and resulting from the presumed loss of client's trust. Operational research were carried out on a group of several dozen vehicles, registering their operational states during several years of use. The results of the research confirmed the suitability of the incapacity risk model for predicting potential expenses for guarantee the vehicle's continuity of running in the company and to verify the selection of the vehicle brand and the period of use.

PL

Przedstawiono propozycję oceny ryzyka niezdatności samochodów użytkowych realizujących zadania przewozowe w warunkach rynkowych. Zastosowano model oceny ryzyka w formie kosztowej, który opiera się na wyznaczeniu efektywności eksploatacyjnej, odnosząc koszty zapewnienia niezawodności systemu transportowego do przychodu progowego. Uwzględnia on koszty: napraw incydentalnych, nieplanowanych przestojów oraz wynikające z potencjalnej utraty zaufania zleceniodawcy. Badania eksploatacyjne przeprowadzono na grupie kilkudziesięciu pojazdów ciężarowych, rejestrując ich naprawy na przestrzeni kilku lat użytkowania. Wyniki badań potwierdziły przydatność modelu ryzyka niezdatności do prognozowania potencjalnych wydatków na zapewnienie ciągłości działania pojazdów w przedsiębiorstwie oraz do weryfikacji doboru marki pojazdów w aspekcie okresu ich użytkowania.

20

Wiarygodne prognozy kluczem do usprawnienia realizacji zamówień

51%

Guzanek P. , Sobecki G. , Bawoł P. , Borucka A.

Gospodarka Materiałowa i Logistyka

|

2023

|

tom nr 1

31--39

PL

Celem artykułu jest wskazanie różnic między ogólnodostępnym narzędziem prognozującym wykorzystywanym w planowaniu dostaw a dedykowanym, stworzonym specjalnie dla danej firmy. Autorzy na podstawie przeprowadzonych badań ukazują różnice w działalności sieci sklepów, prognozowaniu dostaw i ich wartości z użyciem dwóch różnych systemów wspomagających prognozowanie sprzedaży produktów. Przyjęto hipotezę badawczą, że wiarygodne prognozy są kluczowe w usprawnianiu realizacji zamówień i stanowią istotny czynnik wpływający na satysfakcję klienta oraz zdobywanie przewagi konkurencyjnej.

EN

The aim of the article is to indicate the difference between a publicly available forecasting indicator used in supplier planning and one created specifically for a given company. The authors based on the results of comparative research in the operation of chain stores, forecasting deliveries and their value with the use of various systems supporting the forecasting of product supply. A research hypothesis was adopted that reliable forecasts are crucial in improving order fulfillment and are an important factor influencing customer satisfaction and gaining a competitive advantage.