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An Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Number of Safety Incidents in Civil Aviation

100%

Guzanek P. , Borucka A.

Safety & Defense

2021

tom 2

105--118

Aviation is the youngest of the transport industries, yet despite its short history, it is considered one of the most important spheres of transport, both in terms of passenger and cargo transportation. Civil aviation is used by an increasing number of people, and the number of aircraft used by airlines around the world continues to grow. An inherent element that is a particularly important aspect of this mode of transportation is security. In civil aviation, there are numerous dangers associated with events occurring before the flight, during the flight, as well as those associated with the landing process. The events need to be controlled and their causes actively sought and ultimately prevented. The Polish Civil Aviation Authority, as part of the creation of the National Civil Aviation Safety Program, developed the National Safety Plan 2020-2023. The document covers threats identified in the Systemic, European, and National Areas. They are characterized and classified based on the materiality (significance) of the event. The aim of this article is to characterize and analyze selected factors (e.g. collisions with birds, helicopter events) that affect the number of safety incidents in civil aviation. The background of the study was the analysis and synthesis of the literature on the subject, while the main research method was the statistical analysis of historical data on aviation incidents. The data provided in Poland's National Security Plan 2020-2023 were used to distinguish the factors associated with the threats present and synthetically evaluate their impact. The analyses made it possible to identify areas of particular safety risks and form the basis for further detailed research.

Predicting the seasonality of passengers in railway transport based on time series for proper railway development

100%

Borucka A. , Guzanek P.

2022

tom T. 17, z. 1

51--61

Planning the frequency of rail services is closely related to forecasting the number of passengers and is part of the comprehensive analysis of railway systems. Most of the research presented in the literature focuses only on selected areas of this system (e.g. urban agglomerations, urban underground transport, transfer nodes), without presenting a comprehensive evaluation that would provide full knowledge and diagnostics of this mode of transport (i.e. railway transport). Therefore, this article presents methods for modelling passenger flow in rail traffic at a national level (using the example of Poland). Time series models were used to forecast the number of passengers in rail transport. The error, trend, and seasonality (ETS) exponential smoothing model and the model belonging to the ARMA class were used. An adequate model was selected, allowing future values to be forecast. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model follows the tested series better than the ETS model and is characterised by the lowest values of forecast errors in relation to the test set. The forecast based on the ARIMA model is characterised by a better detection of the trends and seasonality of the series. The results of the present study are considered to form the basis for solving potential rail traffic problems, which depend on the volume of passenger traffic, at the central level. The methods presented can also be implemented in other systems with similar characteristics, which affects the usability of the presented solutions.

Wiarygodne prognozy kluczem do usprawnienia realizacji zamówień

80%

Guzanek P. , Sobecki G. , Bawoł P. , Borucka A.

Gospodarka Materiałowa i Logistyka

2023

tom nr 1

31--39

Celem artykułu jest wskazanie różnic między ogólnodostępnym narzędziem prognozującym wykorzystywanym w planowaniu dostaw a dedykowanym, stworzonym specjalnie dla danej firmy. Autorzy na podstawie przeprowadzonych badań ukazują różnice w działalności sieci sklepów, prognozowaniu dostaw i ich wartości z użyciem dwóch różnych systemów wspomagających prognozowanie sprzedaży produktów. Przyjęto hipotezę badawczą, że wiarygodne prognozy są kluczowe w usprawnianiu realizacji zamówień i stanowią istotny czynnik wpływający na satysfakcję klienta oraz zdobywanie przewagi konkurencyjnej.

The aim of the article is to indicate the difference between a publicly available forecasting indicator used in supplier planning and one created specifically for a given company. The authors based on the results of comparative research in the operation of chain stores, forecasting deliveries and their value with the use of various systems supporting the forecasting of product supply. A research hypothesis was adopted that reliable forecasts are crucial in improving order fulfillment and are an important factor influencing customer satisfaction and gaining a competitive advantage.