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Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea

100%

Shaltout M. , Omstedt A.

tom No. 56 (3)

411--443

We analyse recent Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and their response to global change using 1/4-degree gridded advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) daily SST data, 1982-2012. These data indicate significant annual warming (from 0.24°C decade-1 west of the Strait of Gibraltar to 0.51°C decade-1over the Black Sea) and significant spatial variation in annual average SST (from 15ºC over the Black Sea to 21°C over the Levantine sub-basin). Ensemble mean scenarios indicate that the study area SST may experience significant warming, peaking at 2.6°C century-1 in the Representative Concentration Pathways 85 (RCP85) scenario.

Calculating the water and heat balances of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin using ocean modelling and available meteorological, hydrological and ocean data

100%

Shaltout M. , Omstedt A.

nr 2

Eastern Mediterranean water and heat balances were analysed over 52 years. The modelling uses a process-oriented approach resolving the one-dimensional equations of momentum, heat and salt conservation; turbulence is modelled using a twoequation model. The results indicate that calculated temperature and salinity follow the reanalysed data well. The water balance in the Eastern Mediterranean basin was controlled by the difference between inflows and outflows through the Sicily Channel and by net precipitation. The freshwater component displayed a negative trend over the study period, indicating increasing salinity in the basin. The heat balance was controlled by heat loss from the water surface, solar radiation into the sea and heat flow through the Sicily Channel. Both solar radiation and net heat loss displayed increasing trends, probably due to decreased total cloud cover. In addition, the heat balance indicated a net import of approximately 9 W m−2 of heat to the Eastern Mediterranean Basin from the Western Basin.

Sea-level change and projected future flooding along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

80%

Shaltout M. , Tonbol K. , Omstedt A.

tom 57

nr 4