Wyniki wyszukiwania - Biblioteka Nauki

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Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter Todd i ABC Research Group - "Zagadki heurystyk decyzyjnych"

100%

Białaszek W.

Decyzje

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2019

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nr 31

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Don’t fight the tape! Technical Analysis Momentum and Contrarian Signals as Common Cognitive Biases

80%

Zielonka P. , Białaszek W. , Biedrzycki P. , Dzik B.

Central European Management Journal

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2020

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tom 28(2)

98-110

EN

Purpose: Stock market participants use technical analysis to seek trends in stock price charts despite its doubtful efficiency. We tested whether technical analysis signals represent typical and common cognitive biases associated with the continuation or reversal of the trend. Methodology: We compared investors’ opinions about the predictive power of technical analysis signals grouped into five conditions: real technical analysis signals associated with trend continuation (real momentum signals) or trend reversal (real contrarian signals), fake momentum or fake contrarian signals, and fluctuation signals. Findings: Investors assigned larger predictive power to real and fake signals associated with trend continuation than to signals associated with trend reversal. Fake signals, which represented cognitive biases, elicited similar predictions about trend continuation or reversal to real technical analysis signals. Originality: Market players assess momentum signals to have greater predictive power than contrarian signals and neutral signals to have the least predictive power. These results are independent of whether technical analysis signals were well-known to investors or made up by experimenters. The hardwired propensity of our brains to detect patterns combined with the non-natural environment of the stock market creates the illusion of expertise that is not easy to dispel.

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Higher Behavioral Profile of Mindfulness and Psychological Flexibility is Related to Reduced Impulsivity in Smokers, and Reduced Risk Aversion Regardless of Smoking Status

80%

Marcowski P. , Białaszek W. , Dudek J. , Ostaszewski P.

Polish Psychological Bulletin

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2017

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nr 4

445-455

EN

Empirical evidence suggests that mindfulness, psychological flexibility, and addiction are interrelated in decision making. In our study, we investigated the relationship of the behavioral profile, composed of mindfulness and psychological flexibility, and smoking status on delay and probability discounting. We demonstrated the interaction of the behavioral profile of mindfulness and psychological flexibility (lower or higher) and smoking status on delay discounting. We found that individuals who smoked and displayed higher mindfulness and psychological flexibility devalued rewards at a slower rate, compared to smokers with a lower profile. Importantly, in those with a higher profile, smokers discounted rewards no differently than nonsmokers. Smokers with a lower profile did display, however, increased impulsivity, compared to nonsmokers. These results suggest that behavioral interventions aiming to modify the behavioral profile with regard to mindfulness and psychological flexibility can indeed support the regulation of elevated impulsivity in smokers to equate with that of nonsmokers. In probability discounting, we observed that individuals with a higher profile displayed lower discounting rates, i.e., were less risk-averse, with no other significant main effect or interaction.

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Intertemporal Decision Making After Brain Injury: Amount-Dependent Steeper Discounting after Frontal Cortex Damage

80%

Białaszek W. , Swebodziński B. , Ostaszewski P.

Polish Psychological Bulletin

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2017

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nr 4

456-463

EN

Traumatic brain injuries to the frontal lobes are associated with many maladaptive forms of behavior. We investigated the association between brain damage and impulsivity, as measured by the rate of delay discounting (i.e., the extent to which future outcomes are devalued in time). The main aim of this study was to test the hypothesis of steeper discounting of different amounts in a group of patients with frontal lobe damage. We used a delay discounting task in the form of a structured interview. A total of 117 participants were divided into five groups: three neurological groups and two groups without brain damage. Our analyses showed that patients with focal damage to the frontal lobes demonstrated steeper delay discounting than other participants. Other clinical groups demonstrated similar discounting rates. The data pattern related to the magnitude effect on the group level suggested that the magnitude effect is absent in the group of patients with damage to the frontal lobes; however, results were less consistent on an individual level. Amount-dependent discounting was observed in only two groups, the healthy control group and the neurological group with other cortical areas damaged.

5

PSYCHOMETRIC EVALUATION OF THE ‘READING THE MIND IN THE EYES’ TEST WITH SAMPLES OF DIFFERENT AGES FROM A POLISH POPULATION

61%

Jankowiak-Siuda K. , Baron-Cohen S. , Białaszek W. , Dopierała A. , Kozłowska A. , Rymarczyk K.

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tom 58

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nr 1

18 – 31

EN

The ‘Reading the Mind in the Eyes’ Test (RMET) is a test of a Theory of Mind, i.e., the ability to infer the states of minds of other people. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a Polish adaptation of the RMET. The sample consisted of 447 participants, aged 18-85. The internal consistency of the RMET was 0.668; the upper confidence interval was 0.718. The score in the Polish version of the RMET was positively correlated with the English version. Test-retest stability was acceptable, with ICC = 0.886. The correlation of RMET and the cognitive empathy measure confirms the theoretical assumptions. There were significant gender differences in RMET scores: women had higher scores than men. Elderly groups of participants differ statistically from younger groups of participants in the RMET. The Polish version of the RMET showed satisfactory psychometric parameters, comparable to those of the original version.