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1 Studia Ekonomiczne

1 2013

1 Biolik J.

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Dylematy modelowania gospodarki narodowej

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Biolik J.

tom 152

11-19

This paper presents problems of the construction of econometric models (MES-1 and MGS) in the Polish economy. These models were constructed in the 80's by a team led by Professor Kolonko. Model of the Polish economy - MES - 1 covered areas of: employment, production, national income, public money fund, consumption and foreign trade. The main object of this model was prediction. This model had a high compliance measured by determination ratio. Estimated prognosis had relatively high accuracy. To estimate the predictive accuracy of the model measures ex-ante and ex-post were used. MGS model was used to the simulation analysis. The transition to a market economy and changes in the economic system in the early 90's led to abandonment of further work on the use of constructed models.