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2 Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)

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EUROPEAN COHESION POLICY TO THE RESCUE? REVISING (COUNTER)-CYCLICAL EFFECTS IN THE EU-28 RECIPIENT COUNTRIES

100%

Stiblarova L.

Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)

2022

tom 70

nr 9-10

681 – 702

This paper empirically verifies recent efforts of EU policymakers and government authorities to apply the European Cohesion Policy (ECP) as a possible counter-cyclical instrument to boost economies in their economic downturns. Compared to limited country-specific studies, we allow for an endogeneity issue between the business cycles and the ECP payments and apply a system GMM estimation for the EU-28 recipient countries sample in the time period 2000 – 2018. Even though the overall ECP payments follow a pro-cyclical path, the model estimations for the sub-periods based on individual programming periods reveal a time-varying cyclical character of the ECP. Whereas the observed pro-cyclicality can be mainly contributed to the period 2000 – 2006, we find the conditional counter-cyclical effects in 2007 – 2013 and 2014 – 2018, when a lower price level and obeying the rule of law seem to have an extra counter-cyclical dimension, confirming a rationale of the convergence criteria and the stability and the growth pact.

HOW FISCAL SPACE MATTERS? EVIDENCE ON FISCAL MULTIPLIERS FROM THRESHOLD SVAR METHODOLOGY

63%

Kamenik M. , Stiblarova L.

nr 4

335 – 358

In this paper, we alternatively apply a threshold SVAR methodology to measure fiscal multipliers in selected world’s economies with regard to the size of the fiscal space defined by a proxy variable of primary balance, which may be substantially linked to the ability of the fiscal policy instruments to affect the output. The results suggest that positive and negative shocks do not necessarily result in symmetric response of variables as smaller fiscal multipliers (i.e., less effective fiscal policies) are observed when economies show weaker fiscal position. Thus, expansionary fiscal policy in times of narrow fiscal space dampens expansionary effects on real economic activity. At the same time, we find considerably lower revenue than spending multipliers, confirming Keynesian theory (except for France).