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2
Content available On thermal characteristics analysis of city climates
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tom 8
123-128
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Content available Thermal characteristics of the climate of Europe
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tom 7
55-64
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Content available A mathematical model of Poland's climate
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tom 2
55-69
EN
Content fluctuations of the oxygen isotope δ18O in the Devon Island ice core during the last 100 000 years are a measure of climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere. The course of content of the oxygen isotope δ18O and the sums of solar radiation reaching the upper edge of the atmosphere are characterized by approximate minima and maxima (by positive correlation). This proves that, during the last hundred thousand years, climate fluctuations (cooling and warming) in the Northern Hemisphere were conditioned by long-term changes of the orbit and altitude of the Earth's axis. Climate fluctuation forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere were developed for the next 40 000 years on the basis of the established periods of change of the oxygen isotope δ18O and the known solar radiation periodicity. Climate changes in Europe during the last 25000 years were presented together with a forecast for 1000 years (according to organic substances in deposits and radiation) as well as climate changes in Europe in the period from -500 years BP to 2100 AD (according to δ18O and pine tree-rings). It showed that climate changes depended on the concentration of planet mass in relation to the ecliptic plane (from the gravitational impact of planets on the Sun). Concentration courses of planet mass in the Solar System and climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere were compared. Of interest are examples of synchronic fluctuations, i.e. dispersal of planet mass in the Solar System, the widths of pine and spruce tree rings and air temperatures in Europe.
EN
The paper discusses periodic climate changes in Europe determined on the basis of dendrochronological data dating back one thousand years. In tree-ring width sequences of trees growing in Poland there are approximately 8-, 11-, 100- and 180- year periods. The tree-ring widths of oaks growing in Poland for the last centuries are characterised, without any significant amplitude, by 8- and 11-year periods (Tab. 1). In turn, chronologies of pine, spruce, larch, oak and fir growing in Europe are characterised by 100- and 180-year periods (Tab. 2). Cycles of dendrochronological variables approximate cycles of air temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation NAO as well as those of solar activity. The forecast of annual growth (ring width) for 2001-2100 was calculated by interference of the tree-ring width cycles determined by the sinusoidal regression method. Because of much longer empirical sequences of specific periods, the credibility of forecasts for treering widths is greater than that for air temperature.
EN
Heat and cold waves in Warsaw (the Okęcie district) have been determined determined basing on daily average air temperature values in Warsaw (the Okęcie district), measured for 60 years between 1951 and 2010. Air temperature cycles, i.e. periods, amplitudes and phases have been determined by means of a sinusoidal regression method. Especially worth noting are 15 to 18-day long cycles of air temperature in given months (e.g. 16-day long cycles during 6 months: March, April, May, August, September, and October). Heat and cold waves result from interferences of cycles whose duration ranges from several to teen days of daily temperature values, and long-term cycles of average annual temperature.
EN
The objective of the work is to determine the periodicity and trends of change in air temperature in Warsaw and in Lviv during the 18th-20thcenturies, together with the forecast for the years 2000-2100. There are interesting diagrams of temporal changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indicator and air temperature, with the forecast reaching the year 2100. The forecasts were obtained on the basis of interpretations of the Sun activity and the NAO indicator cycles, determined with the method of ”regression sinusoids”. The fluctuations of air temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation during winter in Warsaw and in Lviv are closely correlated.
EN
The air temperatures recorded at Warsaw-Okęcie in 1951-2010 were compared with forecasts for the period 1980-2010 and 1991-2010, i.e. 31 and 20 years ahead. Accurate predictions of air temperatures in Warsaw in 1980-2010 were calculated using the cycles identified by applying the sinusoidal regression method to a series of monitoring results obtained in Warsaw between 1779 and 1979. The high accuracy of these forecasts is the result of a similar progression of measured and forecast values over a number of years. The prediction of climate change in the Northern Hemisphere for example, caused by interference of long solar radiation cycles as well as variations in the concentrations of the δ18O oxygen isotope in the Arctic ice cores, requires a larger series of data points.
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