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1

ARE THERE TWO TYPES OF BUSINESS CYCLES? A NOTE ON CRISIS DETECTION

100%

Pater R.

Finansowy Kwartalnik Internetowy e-Finanse

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2014

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tom 10

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nr 3

11-28

EN

Business cycles are highly irregular fluctuations in economic activity. This article attempts to determine whether there are some properties of business cycles that can make them look more regular. This is done by analysing business cycle dynamics, especially by employing and adjusting to contemporary business cycle analysis the theories of growth cycles and classical cycles. The non-homogeneity of business cycles is surveyed in theory and practice with use of ad hoc filtering, spectral analysis and unobserved components models. With their use business cycles are extracted. Several macroeconomic indicators for 32 economies are analysed to draw up additional characteristics of contemporary business cycles. The author proposes that fluctuations in economic activity lasting 8-19 quarters should be called ‘growth cycles’ and those lasting 20-40 quarters – ‘classical cycles’. The value added of this article is the consideration of the two different type of cycles in light of the same methods of extraction, while to date they have been thought of as the ones that can be analysed with use of different methods of extraction. Another innovation is comparison of the cyclicality of different macroeconomic indicators from the point of view of the two types of cycles, while to date they have been analysed in the light of a single business cycle. In the article it is shown that dividing business cycles into such defined classical cycles and growth cycles enables us to understand the differences between the cyclicality of various macroeconomic aggregates and countries. It also enables us to distinguish between smaller downturns and severe recessions. Another conclusion is that the duration of contemporary business cycles around the world closes in a range of 2 to 10 years.

2

Ile jest wolnych miejsc pracy w Polsce?

63%

Gałecka-Burdziak E. , Pater R.

Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

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2015

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tom 279

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nr 5

171-186

EN

The study undertakes to establish how many employment opportunities were available to job seekers in Poland from 2007 to 2014. The authors analyze how many vacancies there were in the market during this period and how this figure changed depending on the business cycle. The authors use different vacancy data sets from sources including Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS), Public Employment Services (PSZ) and online job offers. The main research method used is an analysis of the cyclical properties of time series. The authors find that the number of vacancies in Poland increased from the first quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2014. They also conclude that the number of online job ads largely depended on the business cycle and that cyclical changes in job offers as a whole occurred slightly ahead of cyclical changes in employment and unemployment. The number of online job offers was the highest in provinces with relatively high GDP per capita, the authors say. In the first part of the analyzed period, the labor market showed significant shortages of skilled workers. The unemployment rate initially declined rapidly, but it later rose. This was in part due to a mismatch between job seekers and vacancies in the Polish labor market whereby employee qualifications did not match job requirements. One of the key factors determining adverse developments on the Polish labor market is low labor force mobility, the authors conclude.

PL

Celem artykułu jest charakterystyka podaży wolnych miejsc pracy w Polsce w latach 2007-2014. W artykule opisano badanie na temat dostępności wolnych miejsc pracy na rynku oraz zmian w czasie na tle sytuacji gospodarczej w latach 2007-2014. Analizy dokonano opierając się na różnych zbiorach danych: GUS, PSZ (Publiczne Służby Zatrudnienia) oraz BOP (internetowe oferty pracy). Korzystano z metod badania cyklicznych własności szeregów czasowych. Zaprezentowano zróżnicowanie przestrzenne i zawodowe wakatów publikowanych w Internecie na podstawie wybranych miar niedopasowań. Od I kwartału 2007 r. do II kwartału 2014 r. liczba wolnych miejsc pracy wzrosła. Zmiany miały różnorodny charakter dla danych GUS, internetowych ofert pracy czy ofert pracy kierowanych do urzędów pracy. Autorzy wnioskują, iż statystyki ofert zatrudnienia odzwierciedlają różne frakcje podaży wakatów. Cykliczne zmiany internetowych ofert pracy, ofert pochodzących z urzędów pracy (napływ) oraz wolnych miejsc pracy wg badań GUS nieznacznie wyprzedzają koniunkturalne zmiany zatrudnienia i bezrobocia. Zmiany aktywności gospodarczej determinują liczbę ofert publikowanych w Internecie. Dla tych ofert (internetowych) pokazujemy wzrost niedopasowań przestrzennych (dla województw) oraz w przekroju kierunków kształcenia. Wyrównywanie niedoborów i nadwyżek ofert pracy w przekroju kierunków kształcenia zachodzi (prawdopodobnie tylko) dla niektórych kierunków studiów, np. w naukach ścisłych i inżynieryjnych.

3

The productivity of public and private sector in Poland

63%

Pater R. , Skica T.

Business and Economic Horizons

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2014

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tom 10

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nr 2

120-137

EN

In the article a concept of comparing public and private sector effectiveness is presented. It is based on an analysis of the productivity of capital and labour in both sectors. For this purpose, the authors build growth model in the general and intensive form, taking into account public and private sectors and their relationships in terms of gross value of fixed assets, and employment. Empirical analysis is carried out using a panel model for Polish provinces in the years 2002-2009. The analysis show that the size of the public sector in terms of labour and capital is negatively correlated with Gross Domestic Product and gross value added per employee. Research has shown that the productivity in the two sectors is different. The private sector has a higher productivity of both labour and capital in comparison to the public sector. The authors are of the opinion that the analysis in terms of labour and capital in both sectors substantially complements the more common approach aimed at measuring the effectiveness of public sector from the point of view of expenditures. Proposed analysis has the advantage that it expresses two sectors, which use different accounting categories, in the same economic terms – productivity.

4

Determinants of business innovation in the Regional Innovation System context. Policy implications for a less developed region

51%

Lewandowska A. , Pater R. , Cywiński Ł.

Studia Regionalne i Lokalne

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2019

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nr 1(75)

5-27

EN

The purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of innovation of enterprises in the Regional Innovation System context. We analyse factors that determine regional innovation in a less developed region, taking the Podkarpackie region in Poland as our empirical counterpart. We examine how the EU economic policy instruments influence the innovation of enterprises within the context of the Regional Innovation Systems. We propose a model for the implementation of innovations and test our hypotheses based on the data drawn from the period of 2011–2014. The paper provides insights on a rather successful story from Poland. We posit that enterprises use only specific public policy instruments and that companies’ demand for innovation-supporting instruments changes, reacting to the business cycle phase and to financial incentives.

PL

Celem tego badania jest identyfikacja uwarunkowań innowacyjności przedsiębiorstw w kontekście regionalnego systemu innowacji. Analizujemy czynniki determinujące regionalne innowacje w słabiej rozwiniętym regionie na przykładzie Podkarpacia. Badamy, w jaki sposób instrumenty polityki gospodarczej UE wpływają na innowacyjność przedsiębiorstw w kontekście Regionalnego Systemu Innowacji. Proponujemy model wdrażania innowacji i testujemy nasze hipotezy na podstawie danych z okresu 2011–2014. Zakładamy, że przedsiębiorstwa wykorzystują tylko konkretne instrumenty polityki publicznej i że zapotrzebowanie firm na instrumenty wspierające innowacje zmienia się w zależności od fazy cyklu koniunkturalnego i w reakcji na zachęty finansowe.

5

Separating aggregate discouraged and added worker effects: the case of a former transition country

51%

Congregado E. , Gałecka-Burdziak E. , Golpe A. A. , Pater R.

Oeconomia Copernicana

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2021

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tom 12

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nr 3

729-760

EN

Research background: We analyse the added worker effect (AWE) and the discouraged worker effect (DWE) from an aggregate perspective. The first effect refers to an increase in labour force participation in response to a decrease in the wage rate. The second effect refers to the decision by workers who have been unsuccessful in their job search to leave the labour market or to decrease their labour force participation. For our analysis, we use the case of Poland, a country with a persistently low labour force participation rate. Purpose of the article: While previous studies focused on the net of the two effects, we aim to analyse the two effects both separately and simultaneously. We propose a new approach for analysing the two effects. We generalise and model them as resulting from different shocks: (i) the AWE as the result of a negative wage income shock, and (ii) the DWE as the result of a positive job search time shock. The underlying assumption is that both shocks have at least a transitory effect on the labour force participation rate. However, we also track the potential long-lasting effects of these shocks, and we analyse the reactions of gender and age groups to them. While this approach demonstrates the robustness of our results, it also provides the range of the sensitivity, as it shows that there are large differences in the magnitude of the AWE and the DWE for different labour market cohorts. Methods: We use the multivariate unobserved component model to extract the AWE and the DWE, and we then use VAR models, applying sign and exclusion restrictions to model the underlying shocks. We use quarterly data for Poland in 1995-2019. Most of these data come from the Labour Force Survey, while the rest come from Statistics Poland. Findings & value added: In contrast to previous literature, which analysed only the net effect of the two effects, we model the AWE and the DWE separately. Contrary to the findings of previous research, our approach seems to confirm that both effects are simultaneously present in the labour market, and both effects influence the labour force participation rate. Thus, we find that both effects are significant. Specifically, we show that the AWE is stronger, but transitory; while the DWE is weaker, but long-lasting.

6

Index ofregional economic development. Some considerations and the case of Poland

51%

Pater R. , Harasym R. , Skica T.

Studia Regionalne i Lokalne

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2015

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nr 1(59)

54-85

EN

A measure of economic development for regions is proposed in the form of a multicomponent index. This measure is composed of the following aspects: technology, infrastructure, human capital and social capital and defied by an array of indicators. Such a measure has significant advantages over the most commonly used indicator of GDP per capita. The statistical data based on which it is built are freely available and with a much shorter time lag than GDP at the regional level. This indicator makes it possible to depict economic factors behind long-run economic growth as well as to include less measurable factors such as social change, environmental degradation, etc. On the one hand, the proposed indicator comprises symptoms of the quality of life, and on the other hand, it includes factors which are essential for long-run economic growth and productivity. The authors show usefulness of such an indicator for policy formulation, which is rarely pointed out in the case of other indexes and is especially important at a time when long-run economic growth, and also development, in high-developed countries is endangered. The authors also discuss some general aspects of constructing indexes of economic development for regions, e.g., the often omitted problem of inclusion of cyclical indicators in the indexes of development. Empirical analysis of the proposed indicator is made for the NUTS-2 regions of Poland for the years 2009–2011.

PL

W artykule zaproponowano miernik rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego województw o postaci wskaźnika wielokomponentowego. Miernik obejmuje następujące obszary: technologia, infrastruktura, kapitał ludzki i kapitał społeczny, które definiowane są przez wiele innych wskaźników. Posiada on znaczące przewagi w stosunku do najczęściej stosowanego wskaźnika PKB per capita. Dane statystyczne, na podstawie których jest tworzony, są powszechnie dostępne i ze znacznie mniejszym opóźnieniem niż PKB na poziomie regionów. Wskaźnik ten pozwala ująć czynniki gospodarcze związane z długookresowym wzrostem gospodarczym, jak i efekty zewnętrzne, takie jak zmiany społeczne oraz zanieczyszczenie środowiska i inne. Zaproponowana konstrukcja wskaźnika obejmuje elementy wskaźników jakości życia, popularnych na poziomie krajów, jednak uwzględnia również czynniki niezbędne dla rozwoju gospodarek, a prowadzące do wzrostu wydajności pracy. Autorzy stoją na stanowisku, że takie ujęcie jest niezbędne w dobie problemów gospodarek z długookresowym wzrostem gospodarczym, wpływającym na ich rozwój. W artykule dokonano analizy empirycznej zaproponowanego miernika w odniesieniu do województw w latach 2009–2011. Stwierdzono podobieństwa, ale również wyraźne dywergencje wartości zaproponowanego wskaźnika w przekroju województw w stosunku do PKB per capita. Bazując na powyższych ustaleniach, dokonano także analizy przyczyn takiego stanu rzeczy.