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3 Academicus. International Scientific Journal

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Artificial neural networks in forecasting tourists’ flow, an intelligent technique to help the economic development of tourism in Albania.

100%

Gjylapi D. , Durmishi V.

Academicus. International Scientific Journal

2014

nr 10

202-211

Tourism plays an important role in many economies and contributes greatly to the Gross Domestic Product. In the past eight years, the number of tourist arrivals in Albania has increased rapidly, which resulted in increasing the number of tourist nights and revenue from tourism. Tourism also provides new sources of income for the country, without having that local citizen to pay more taxes. This can be achieved by income from parking, tourist taxes, leased apartments, sales information, etc. Early prediction on the tourist inflow mainly focuses on econometric models that have as a main feature the tourism demand being predicted by analysing factors that affect the tourists’ inflow. This approach results in being difficult, time-consuming and also expensive to determine econometric models. Traditional time series methods, such as exponential smoothing method, grey prediction method, linear regression method, ARIMA method etc., are more appropriate for the prediction of the tourist inflow. However, since they don’t apply a learning process on sample data, it is difficult for them to realize complicated and non-linear prediction on tourist inflow. The aim of this paper is to present the neural network usage in the tourists’ number forecasting and to determine the trends of the future tourist inflow, thus helping tourism management agencies in making scientific based financial decisions.

The Greek crisis effects on the Albanian economy

100%

Durmishi V. , Gjini V.

Academicus. International Scientific Journal

2011

nr 04

130-135

The study of the effects of the crisis of Greece has a special significance for two reasons: The first the large number of Albanian immigrants in Greece, and second is the fact that Greek investments are in sectors of economy. The first part of the analysis has to do with the effects of immigrants on the Greek crisis, collapse of economic growth in Greece, increased unemployment and poverty, which affects the emigrants. The second part of the analysis is the impact of the crisis in the Greek banking system, which is analyzed in several aspects: the safety of deposits, the credit of the Albanian economy and the investment banking sector. The third part of the analysis concerns the reduction of foreign direct investment. Reduction of Greek investments in the banking and telecommunications will grow negative effects.

An Intelligent Market: Possibilities of a Revolution in Supermarkets Organization Using Agent Based Systems

100%

Cipi E. , Durmishi V.

Academicus. International Scientific Journal

2010

nr 01

90-99

This work is focused on studying the possibilities of a new model in business management, integrating the best solutions of IT in the supermarket enterprises. We aim to show how an agent based system is used to manage successfully a market and why it is considered an efficient method to support the challenges of the supermarket enterprises. In a highly competitive environment, the impact of this phenomenon is visible, noting the increase of the interest for electronic systems which offer intelligent services in some activities as administration, marketing, business services, etc. We think agent based systems are the best choice as tools that can automate the analysis of the database information and locate the real useful things.