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2 Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)

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EVALUATION OF GDP GROWTH FORECASTS: DOES USING DIFFERENT DATA VINTAGES MATTER?

100%

Šindelář J. , Budinský P.

nr 9

827 – 846

This paper deals with effect of different real-time data vintages (recent and first outturn) on accuracy of real GDP growth forecasts produced by main Czech and Slovak public authorities (ministries of finance, central banks). Firstly, variation in the real-time data itself was analysed, along with of multidimensional forecasting error evaluation (MAE, RMSE, MASE measures). Then, battery of statistical tests was applied in order to determine, whether the switch from first to recent real-time data affects forecasts´ accuracy in a significant manner (Wilcoxon Signed Rank test, Sign test) and whether it affects relative accuracy between individual institutions (Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Whitney U test). Our results show that while the change in underlying data affects forecasting accuracy in our sample (using recent data lead to higher errors), the changes were neither found statistically significant in strong majority of surveyed cases, nor affected the relative accuracy of involved institutions.

APPLICATIONS OF THEORY OF REDISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS TO ANALYSIS COMPETITIVITY

100%

Budinský P. , Valenčík R.

tom 57

nr 3

291-306

Theory of redistribution systems is an application and at the same time extension of Game Theory. It deals with functioning of institutions, establishments, firms and others social systems, in that pay-offs are redistributed in contrast to achievement of individual players. The redistribution is usually allowed by a coalition, formed inside of redistribution system, that disposes of dominance over the pay-offs' redistribution. Redistribution equation describing all possibilities of pay-offs' redistribution in Elementary Redistribution System and enabling to create and to test a computerized model of Elementary Redistribution System. Based on that, it is possible to model different types of bargaining, kinds of equilibrium - included Pareto optionality and Nash equilibrium - and in connection with it also chaining of simple redistribution systems into the combined ones.