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tom Vol. 2(27)
27--48
EN
The article is a proposition of a new approach to building a neural model based on the system of Day-Ahead Market operating at TGE S.A. The reason for the proposed method is an attempt to find a better model for the DAM system. The proposed methodology is based on using mathematical models used in quantum computing. All calculations performed on learning the Artificial Neuron Network are based on operations described in Hilbert space. The main idea of calculations is to replace the data from the decimal system into the quantum state in Hilbert space and perform learning operations for a neural model of the DAM system in a special manner which relay on the teaching model for each position of the quantum register for all data. The obtained results were compared to the “classical” neural model with the use of a comparative model.
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tom Vol. 1-2(23)
77--93
EN
The work contains the results of the Day-Ahead Market modeling research at Polish Power Exchange taking into account the numerical data on the supplied and sold electricity in selected time intervals from the entire period of its operation (from July 2002 to June 2019). Market modeling was carried out based on three Artificial Neural Network models, ie: Perceptron Artificial Neural Network, Recursive Artificial Neural Network, and Radial Artificial Neural Network. The examined period of the Day-Ahead Market operation on the Polish Power Exchange was divided into sub-periods of various lengths, from one month, a quarter, a half a year to the entire period of the market's operation. As a result of neural modeling, 1,191 models of the Market system were obtained, which were assessed according to the criterion of the least error MSE and the determination index R2.
EN
The paper contains the results of research on the impact of the number of factors used to build the Day-Ahead Market model at Polish Power Exchange S.A. Five models with a different number of factors influencing the model were tested. To test the quality of models according to the adopted evaluation criteria, i.e., mean square error and the coefficient of determination for the weighted average prices sold in a given hour of the day, the influence of weather factors, socio-economic factors and energy demand were adopted. The results obtained from the analysis show a relatively high correctness of the simplest of the adopted models, which differs slightly from the best model.
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tom Vol. 51, No. 4
557--583
EN
The purpose of the work, presented in this article, was to obtain a price model for the Day-Ahead Market of the Polish Power Exchange (PPE). The resulting proposed models are based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and the involved suggested improvement concerns the proper selection of both the type of network and the factors used in model construction. The article also proposes a new approach to the ANN with the implemented quantum learning model. The purpose of the research was to analyze factors, which exert influence on the quality of the model, like weather or economic factors, or the type of neural network used. The model determines the relationship between the price and the volume of electricity for a given hour of the day. The mean square error and the coefficient of determination were used to measure the quality of the obtained models. The results from the experiments performed indicate the possibility of developing improved models of the Day-Ahead Market.
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tom No. 100
121--132
PL
Artykuł zawiera wybrane wyniki badań dotyczące istoty i implementacji Algorytmu Ewolucyjnego inspirowanego obliczeniami kwantowymi do poprawy parametrów modelu neuralnego wyznaczającego ceny na Towarowej Giełdzie Energii Elektrycznej. Do uczenia Sztucznej Sieci Neuronowej modelu systemu wykorzystano dane liczbowe notowane na Rynku Dnia Następnego w okresie od 01 stycznia 2015 r. do 30 czerwca 2015 r. Szczególną uwagę zwrócono na sposób systemowego tworzenie Populacji Początkowej oraz na sposób systemowego tworzenie funkcji krzepkości (funkcji przystosowania), a na tej bazie na metodę kwantyzacji, dekwantyzacji i obliczeń kwantowych przeprowadzonych z wykorzystaniem pojęcia kwantowej liczby mieszanej i rachunku wektorowo-macierzowego. Uzyskano znaczącą poprawę modelu neuralnego wspomaganego algorytmem ewolucyjnym inspirowanym kwantowo w stosunku do modelu neuralnego wspomaganego algorytmem ewolucyjnym bez inspiracji kwantowej.
EN
The paper contains selected research results on the nature and implementation of the Evolutionary Algorithm inspired by quantum computation to improve the parameters of the neural model determining prices at the Polish Power Exchange. To learn the Artificial Neural Network system model, the figures quoted on the Commodity Electricity Market of the Day-Ahead Market were used in the period from January 1, 2018 to June 30, 2018. Particular attention was paid to the systemic creation of the Initial Population and the systemic creation of the function of solidification (function adaptation), and on this basis, the quantization, dequantization and quantum computation methods carried out using the quantum concept of a mixed number. Significant improvement of the neural model supported by quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm in relation to the model without quantum inspiration was obtained.
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