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1

Whether Asia is exposed to nuclear conflict

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Zarychta S.

Security and Defence Quarterly

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2016

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tom 11

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nr 2

70-92

EN

The analysis of the political-military situation in South-east Asia shows that it is a hot spot area which, in the future, might be a place of nuclear conflict. Disputes over natural resources, the petroleum and natural gas of the South China Sea, may make it a global hot spot. The main contenders who want to play the dominant role in the Asia and the Pacific Ocean area are the United States and China. Territorial disputes can also start a future war. Kashmir, which remains the source of ceaseless tensions between India and Pakistan, can provide an example. Conflicts have already consumed thousands of victims and repeatedly put the feuding sides on the edge of the nuclear war.

2

Koreańska Republika Ludowo-Demokratyczna mocarstwem jądrowym

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Zarychta S.

Gdańskie Studia Azji Wschodniej

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2022

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nr 22

139-148

EN

In recent years, we have seen a deterioration of the security environment in the Asian region. This situation is mainly influenced by the political, economic, and military rivalry among states. Countries that have nuclear weapons in their arsenals play important roles in the security system. Of the nine countries with nuclear weapons, four are in Asia. Along with increasing their nuclear capabilities, these states are also revising their war doctrines, often moving away from deterrence strategies and envisaging the use of nuclear weapons as a means of first strike. North Korea has made significant progress over the past two decades in developing its nuclear weapons arsenal, including means of delivery. It has conducted six nuclear tests and tested a number of new ballistic missiles, several of which can hit targets in Northeast Asia and potentially in the United States and Europe. It is estimated that North Korea could potentially produce 20 to 30 warheads to be delivered mainly by medium and short-range ballistic missiles. In September 2022, North Korea announced it would respond to attacks on its nuclear command and control systems by launching a nuclear attack “automatically and immediately.”

3

Pakistan – w kierunku triady jądrowej

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Zarychta S.

Gdańskie Studia Azji Wschodniej

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2023

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nr 23

209-223

EN

Pakistan’s political history since independence has been marked by periods of political, military, and economic instability. The Kashmir conflict remains a major point of contention between Pakistan and India. Therefore, Pakistan’s main reason for building nuclear weapons was as a deterrent against Indian conventional forces and a desire to gain a leading role in the Islamic world. The assessment of Pakistan’s nuclear potential is very difficult due to limited information and lack of transparency on the part of military circles. While all nuclear-weapon states generally aim to lower their capabilities, Pakistan, on the contrary, is developing its nuclear capabilities and is currently projected to have around 165 nuclear warheads. Pakistan’s nuclear policy is to have a full spectrum of nuclear weapons from tactical nuclear weapons to strategic ballistic missiles. The main task of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is deterrence. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is intended firstly to deter India from aggression against Pakistan and secondly to prevent India from being victorious in the event of war. The basis of the doctrine of the Pakistani armed forces is the current concept of offensive defense, which assumes conducting a counterattack, the purpose of which will be to transfer a possible armed conflict to the enemy’s territory.

4

Japońskie Siły Samoobrony gwarantem bezpieczeństwa państwa – Lądowe i Powietrzne Siły Samoobrony

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Zarychta S.

Gdańskie Studia Azji Wschodniej

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2017

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nr 12

21-39

EN

The situation in the South-East Asia is unstable. The growing military power of China and its assertive expansion policy in the Pacific Ocean, with the attempt of unilateral appropriation of the entire South China Sea as well as recent events connected with the crisis on the Korean Peninsula, enforce certain changes in Japan safety strategy. Necessity to oppose growing ambitions of Beijing and the North Korea unpredictable action are, at present, one of the most important challenges for Japan and its allies. Deterrence is closely connected with ability to stopping effectively hostile ambition to gain supremacy in the region. Having new generation equipment and armament, which surpass abilities of the potential aggressor, is one of the factors providing balance. The military conflict threat also provoked the need to raise the level of military cooperation with the major Japan ally – United States. In response to China military forces activity and defiance of the North Korea, exercises of the naval forces and air force were intensified. Changes in the region also influence military forces modernization programs and change of using Japan Self-Defense Forces. Japan begins developing and building its military capability in order to restore its military position in the region.

5

Japońskie siły samoobrony (JSS) gwarantem bezpieczeństwa państwa – siły morskie i Straż Graniczna

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Zarychta S.

Gdańskie Studia Azji Wschodniej

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2017

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nr 11

121-137

EN

During the Cold War, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces didn’t play an important role in the region. The situation has changed along with the fall of the USSR, increasing the political-military activity of the PRC and an unpredictable policy of the DPRK. The current situation in Southeast Asia is unstable. The greatest threat to the sovereignty of Japan is the aggressive actions of the People’s Republic of China, North Korea and Russia. China, conducting a very military strategy, still stakes a claim to the Senkaku Islands in order to impose dominance upon neighboring countries – it is a considerable risk for that area. Another military threat to Japan is the unpredictable North Korea, which has powers and means, including ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads able to strike the whole Japanese territory. The Russian Federation which is staking a claim to the Kuril Islands, still remains a threat to Japan. The changes in the region influenced the changes of the Maritime Self-Defense Forces and the armament policy. Among others, the Maritime Self-Defense Forces increased its action and started to cooperate actively in the interest of peace in the world.