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EN
This paper presents the process of quantitative assessment of selected factors influencing the probability of grounding. All grounding accidents that occurred during one year (2013) in the Baltic Sea area were analysed. The research area was chosen because of very high traffic intensity and a large number of narrow passages that make it difficult for navigation. The research period was limited by the latest data reported by HELCOM up to the year 2013. The Method of Grounding Probability Coefficient (GPC) calculation is proposed to reach the assumed goal. Either internal factors such as the ships size and ship type or external factors such as time of day, wind force and season were taken into account. As a result the values of coefficients describing the impact of various factors on the probability are evaluated. This coefficients, taking into consideration coupling effect, can be used in future in the navigational safety simulation models based on the assumed value of accident probability.
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Content available Models of ships groudings on coastals areas
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PL
W artykule przedstawiono opis modeli pozwalających na określanie prawdopodobieństwa wejścia statku na mieliznę na akwenach przybrzeżnych. Przedstawiono również założenia, budowę oraz wstępne wyniki nowego modelu wejścia statku na mieliznę opracowanego w Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie. Model ten zastosowany został w stochastycznym symulacyjnym modelu do kompleksowej oceny bezpieczeństwa nawigacyjnego.
EN
The paper presents description of models of ships groundings probability assessment on coastal areas. It also presents assumptions and preliminary results of new grounding model developed in Maritime University in Szczecin. This model was used in stochastic simulation model of comprehensive navigational safety assessment.
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Content available Models of ship-ship collision. Qualitative assesment
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EN
The paper presents the review and the comparison of the existing models of ships–ship collision. It also presents assumptions and preliminary results of collision model developed in Institute of Marine Traffic Engineering in Szczecin.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono przegląd oraz porównanie istniejących modeli kolizyjnych typu statek–statek. Zaprezentowano założenia oraz wstępne wyniki modelu kolizyjnego opracowanego w Instytucie Inżynierii Ruchu Morskiego Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie.
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Content available Analysis of vessel traffic flows on a waterway bend
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EN
This paper presents preliminary results of research to develop a method of analysis of chosen parameters of vessel traffic flows on a bend in a waterway. Assumptions within the model are based on the geometrical dependences and, for a significant part, on expert experience and real life manoeuvring tactics. The work is focused on the analysis of coordinates of a ship, reduced to its centre of gravity, for different input and assumed output parameters. The proposed method allows also for the analysis of other parameters that influence navigational safety such as rate of turn. The results confirm the possibility of assessment of traffic flow parameters with use of the developed method. In the next stages of the work, algorithms which are capable of accounting for human factors and external conditions can be implemented.
5
Content available LNG supply chain in the SBSR
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EN
The paper presents the LNG-related supply chain in the South Baltic Sea Region which was specified as a result of the MarTech LNG Project. First part of the paper presents specification of technologies and technical solutions. Then it turns to the LNG-related stakeholders, i.e. all actors involved into LNG supply, delivery as well as end-user technologies. Aspects of LNG-related infrastructure accomplish the presentation of the SBSR supply chains. The paper is concluded by structural delineation of the supply chains in the SBSR.
EN
The paper presents implementation of probabilistic ships collision model to evaluation of possible oil spills in the Southern Baltic Sea area. The results of the model is time, place and size of the oil spill due to ships collision. The results could be used for oil spill response action plans. The paper will open the discussion about validation of achieved results and will try to answer the question about verification of Baltic Sea oil spills data in comparison to worlds statistics.
PL
Przedstawiono metody modelowania matematycznego służące do wyznaczenia położenia kadłuba statku oraz szerokości pasa ruchu promu m/f "Jan Śniadecki" w rejonie główek wejściowych do portu w Świnoujściu, na podstawie naprzemiennie wykonywanych pomiarów bezpryzmatowym dalmierzem laserowym.
EN
The paper presents mathematical modeling for the positioning of the ship's hull and determination of the ship's path width. The above are achieved by two non-simultaneous measurements with a pulsed laser rangefinder. The investigated area is the entrance to the port of Świnoujście.
EN
Paper presents results of a real-time simulation experiment which was carried out to study an influence of speed reduction on the navigational safety of container ships. In order to determine changes in the vessels manoeuvrability set of simulated sea trials was carried out. The tests included the measuring of the movement parameters of ships proceeding with different initial speed in different external conditions.
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EN
This article presents a dedicated kinematic method of determining a safe fairway bend width with a specific turn angle and arc radius as the function of ship parameters and prevailing navigational conditions on the fairway. The assumed approach takes into consideration monoeuvring and navigational components of the safe fairway bend width. The method is based on an analysis of the results of numerical tests conducted on a model representing all physically possible movements of ship's centre of gravity in the bend. The developed method was initially verified on the Ińskie bend, part of the Świnoujście-Szczecin fairway.
EN
The article presents an original two-stage simulation method for the optimization of seaport parameters. Presentation of the method is based on example of parameter optimization of the outer container port in Świnoujście. Presented method uses two limitations of the objective function related to safety of manoeuvring and mooring of ships. It consist of two stages, first one is carried out for the parameters defined in the preliminary stage of design. On the basis of results from this stage, layout and other parameters of port waterways can be adjusted to satisfy assumed safety criteria. The second stage uses the parameters established in the first stage. It allows for small adjustments which will not change the safety of manoeuvring. The result of second stage is optimal parameters of the examined port waterways.
EN
The paper presents results of researches aimed at assessing of influence of traffic intensity increase on collision probability in the Gulf of Trieste. Stochastic, simulation model working in fast time was used in the researches. Ships traffic was modeled on the basis of real data obtained from AIS.
EN
This paper presents assumptions and process of the forming of a risk assessment model for collision between a passenger ferry departing from or approaching port of Świnoujście and a chemical tanker carrying a dangerous cargo. In order to assess navigational safety on the basis of data obtained from AIS system, were prepared probabilistic domains of ships, which made it possible to estimate number of navigational incidents as well as their spatial distribution , that consequently allowed to determine potentially dangerous areas. The next phase was formulation of a simulative model intended for the calculating of probability of collision between the ferry and chemical tanker as well as the determining of characteristic scenarios for such collision. This paper presents also an analysis of consequences of the collision with taking into consideration a damage of cargo tanks.
EN
This paper presents an original kinematic method for the assessment of the safe parameters of waterway bends. The proposed method has been based on the analysis of the results obtained through the use of the developed simulation model which allowed for the examination of all the physically available paths of a ship’s centre of gravity. The results of the simulation were divided into defined subsets that enabled the assessment of the safe parameters of waterway bends. This paper also presents the calculations that were carried out for the theoretical reference bend.
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tom No. 21
133--142
EN
The paper presents the assumptions of a simulation model for assessing the navigational safety of fishing vessels. The model consist of submodels of merchant and fishing vessels traffic, submodel of external condition and submodel of accident consequences. Paper present also a results of simulation experiment which was carried out for Polish EEZ. Model takes into account all Polish fishing vessels operating in the Polish EEZ with length more than 15 meters and the merchant vessels traffic in South Baltic Sea area. As a results positions of simulated collisions of fishing and merchant vessels, positions and sizes of simulated bunker spills and the positions of losses of fishing equipment were achieved.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono założenia złożonego modelu symulacyjnego dla szacowania bezpieczeństwa nawigacyjnego statków rybackich. Model składa się z modeli ruchu statków handlowych i statków rybackich, modelu warunków środowiskowych oraz modelu skutków zdarzenia. Ponadto w artykule przedstawiono rezultaty eksperymentu symulacyjnego przeprowadzonego dla polskiej wyłącznej strefy ekonomicznej. Model uwzględnia wszystkie polskie statki rybackie operujące w polskiej wyłącznej strefie ekonomicznej o długości większej niż piętnaście metrów oraz ruch statków handlowych na południowej części Morza Bałtyckiego. W rezultacie otrzymano pozycje prawdopodobnych kolizji statków transportowych oraz rybackich, pozycje i rozmiary prawdopodobnych rozlewów olejowych oraz pozycje utraty narzędzi połowowych.
PL
W artykule zawarto wyniki badań eksperymentalnych określania dynamicznej zmiany zapasu wody pod stępką promu morskiego Jan Śniadecki na podejściu i na wyjściu z portu Świnoujście. Badania wykonano za pomocą układu 3 ruchomych odbiorników systemu GPS-RTK zainstalowanych na promie i jednej stacji bazowej RTK zainstalowanej w Świnoujściu.
EN
Article presents results from experimental researches of determination dynamic under keel clearance changes for m/f Jan Sniadecki on the roads and inside port of Swinoujscie. Researches were performed with use of 3 mobile GPS RTK receivers mounted onboard ferry and base station located in Swinoujscie port. Method of data post processing and transformation it to local systems are also discussed.
EN
The paper presents an analysis of the accident between a passenger ship moving on the route Swinoujscie Ystad with tanker carrying hazardous substances category X. In order to assess the safety of navigation in the study area the authors have developed a probabilistic domain, which aims to estimate the number of incidents of navigation on the basis of real data from AIS and to find potentially dangerous areas, where there is the highest number of incidents. Then the vessel traffic model was built and the model of navigational safety assessment to evaluate the probability of Ro-Pax Ferry-Chemical tanker collision. Finally the consequences assessment of collision between Ro-Pax and chemical tanker carrying ammonia was performed, taking into consideration ammonia release.
EN
Abstract This article presents the underlying concepts of a mathematical model optimizing the routes of vessels carrying dangerous goods proceeding in the vicinity of passenger ferries. The method is based on the estimated risk of collision between a chemical tanker and a passenger vessel. Risk assessment was performed using three models. The first model determines the distance of the passing ships on the selected area on the basis of the AIS data. The second one is a stochastic model of navigational safety assessment, which provides statistical data on the probability of collision between the two chosen types of vessels. The third model determines the consequences of collisions between passenger ships and chemical tankers. The study defines the scope of the parameters affecting the objective function of vessel route optimization and their importance in the optimization problem.
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EN
The following paper presents a novel method for approximating the fall trajectories of small, lightweight oil binders, used during oil spill clean-up operation at sea. Due to the weight, size and shape of the binders, the fall trajectory is highly dependent on the direction and strength of the wind, as well as the rotations and positions of individual binders when dropped. Since a large quantity of tightly packed binders are dropped at once, it is highly inconvenient to calculate the precise trajectory of each binder when its exact initial rotation and position inside the container are not known. The aim of this study is to predict the exact moment and position of the drop, as well as the oil binders’ spread, considering wind conditions, airplane velocity and height.
EN
The ship technical failures contribution in overall number of navigational accidents are significantly smaller than those caused by human factor but in safety analysis they cannot be neglected. The paper presents stochastic modeling the technical failures of ships with respect of most important ship systems such as main engine, power generators and steering gear. The data for simulation was obtained from analysis of ships statistical data of polish owners. Obtained results could be useful for estimation of transport loses or potential environmental threats and planning the response action against them.
PL
Techniczne awarie statków są przyczyną znacznie mniej wypadków niż błąd ludzki, lecz w poważnych analizach nie mogą być pomijane. Referat przedstawia modelowanie stochastyczne awarii technicznych statków z uwzględnieniem uszkodzeń silnika głównego, agregatów oraz urządzeń sterowych. Dane, o które opiera się model, uzyskano z analizy próbek statystycznych uzyskanych od polskich armatorów morskich. Otrzymane wyniki mogą być wykorzystane do estymowania strat w transporcie morskim lub zdarzeń mających wpływ na środowisko naturalne oraz skutecznie im przeciwdziałać.
EN
This paper presents assumptions and process of the forming of a risk assessment model for collision between a passenger ferry departing from or approaching port of Świnoujście and a chemical tanker carrying a dangerous cargo. In order to assess navigational safety on the basis of data obtained from AIS system, were prepared probabilistic domains of ships, which made it possible to estimate number of navigational incidents as well as their spatial distribution , that consequently allowed to determine potentially dangerous areas. The next phase was formulation of a simulative model intended for the calculating of probability of collision between the ferry and chemical tanker as well as the determining of characteristic scenarios for such collision. This paper presents also an analysis of consequences of the collision with taking into consideration a damage of cargo tanks
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