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2 Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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About accuracy of risks prediction and importance of increasing adequacy of used probabilistic models

100%

Kostogryzov A. , Nistratov A. , Zubarev I. , Stepanov P. , Grigoriev L.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2015

tom Vol. 6, No. 2

71--80

The work purpose is the quantitative proof of importance and necessity of increasing adequacy of probabilistic models, described by probability distribution functions (PDF) of time between losses of system integrity. For purpose achievement the analysis of probabilistic metrics of risks and the elementary forms to establish an admissible risks is carried out, some ways of increasing an adequacy of probabilistic models for complex structures are described. Possibilities of extracting the latent knowledge from an adequate PDF are shown. Practical value of the researches are the revealed possibilities for a substantiation of more effective system decisions at the expense of increasing accuracy of risks prediction. Effects are demonstrated by examples.

Analytical modelling operation processes of composed and integrated information systems on the principles of system engineering

86%

Kostogryzov A. , Stepanov P. , Nistratov A. , Nistratov G. , Zubarev I. , Grigoriev L.

2016

tom Vol. 7, No. 1

157--166

The approach for analytical modelling operation processes of composed and integrated information systems is proposed. It allows to estimate the reliability and timeliness of information producing, the completeness, validity and confidentiality of the used information from users’ point of view. In application to composed and integrated systems the existing models are developed by introducing the space of elementary events for operation processes from system engineering point of view. It is intended for systems analysts for any IS. Some effects are demonstrated by examples.