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2 Environmental & Socio-economic Studies

2 2015

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The impact of anthropogenic factors on the natural values of the water reservoirs in Sosnowiec (Poland)

100%

Dąbrowska D. , Sołtysiak M.

nr 1

20-25

Many plant and animal species are closely related to the aquatic environment. Small reservoirs are a place of the biodiversity concentration. Reservoirs are especially important for amphibian species as a place of feeding, shelter and wintering. Many anthropogenic factors has a significant impact on the natural values of water reservoirs (surroundings of the water reservoirs, the shore`s type, distance from roads and buildings, the role of the object and the chemical status). They can eliminate or change amphibian population. The effect of three such factors was determined for one of the cities in the Upper Silesian Agglomeration - Sosnowiec (91 km2). The paper presents an assessment of the impact of the type of surroundings, the percentage share of the open space around water reservoirs and the distance from roads and buildings on the number of amphibian species present in the reservoir. In the analysis were taken into account 20 reservoirs, in which amphibian species were found. This analysis indicates the influence urban factors on the number of amphibian species in water reservoirs based on positive correlations in the case of Spearman Rank correlation and the Fisher’s exact test. Results of these calculations highlight the negative impact of the anthropopressure (the changes in the environment) on the amphibian breeding places and the biodiversity.

Short-term forecasting of the chloride content in the mineral waters of the Ustroń Health Resort using SARIMA and Holt-Winters models

80%

Dąbrowska D. , Sołtysiak M. , Waligóra J.

nr 4

57-65

The Ustroń S.A. Health Resort (southern Poland) uses iodide-bromide mineral waters taken from Middle and Upper Devonian limestones and dolomites with a mineralisation range of 110-130 g/dm3 for curative purposes. Two boreholes - U-3 and U3-A drilled in the early 1970s were exploited. The aim of this paper is to estimate changes in mineral water quality of the Ustroń Health Resort by taking into consideration chloride content in the water from the U-3 borehole. The data has included the results of monthly analyses of chlorides from 2005 to 2015 during the tests carried out by the Mining Department of the Health Resort. The triple exponential smoothing (ETS) function and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method of modelling time series were used for the calculations. The ability to properly forecast mineral water quality can result in a good status of the exploitation borehole and a limited number of failures in the exploitation system. Because of the good management of health resorts, it is possible to acquire more satisfied customers. The main goal of the article involves the real-time forecast accuracy, obtained results show that the proposed methods are effective for such situations. Presented methods made it possible to obtain a 24-month point and interval forecast. The results of these analyses indicate that the chloride content is forecast to be in the range of 72 to 83 g/l from 2015 to 2017. While comparing the two methods of analysis, a narrower range of forecast values and, therefore, greater accuracy were obtained for the ETS function. The good performance of the ETS model highlights its utility compared with complicated physically based numerical models.