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Zagrożenie lasów Polski na podstawie modelu ryzyka uszkodzenia drzewostanu przez wiatr

100%

Dmyterko E. , Mionskowski M. , Bruchwald A.

nr 05

On the basis of the wind damage risk model for forests using the data of the State Forests Information System, the stand damage risk factor Wr for each of the 430 forest districts in Poland and the threat measure Ms for a given forest district were determined. The measure of threat to forest Ms for a forest district is a methodical basis for assessing the potential damage to forests in Poland. Its value ranges from 8.1% for the Brzózka Forest District to 48.9% for the Ujsoły Forest District (fig. 1), giving the average value of 24.6% and standard deviation of 7.03%. The measure Ms was the basis for differentiating the levels of threat of wind damage to forest for forest districts. Level 1 (Ms 10%) indicates low threat, level 2 (10%Ms 20%) – elevated threat, level 3 (20%Ms 30%) – moderate threat, level 4 (30%Ms 40%) – high threat, level 5 (Ms 40%) – very high threat. Low threat to forests was found only in two forest districts located in the western part of the country. 113 forest districts, which form large concentrations particularly in western and central Poland, are exposed to an elevated threat. Most forest districts (233) are classified to a group of moderate threat. They are located across the country and are mostly concentrated in the northern and southern regions of Poland. 71 forest districts exposed to high threat are concentrated in the south of Poland in the Carpathians and the Sudetes, with scattered presence in the north of the country. Most of the 11 forest districts with a very high threat to forests are located in the mountains (tab., fig. 1). For the forest districts with a particularly high and very high threat, new silvicultural procedures and the basis for decision making in the field of forest management should be developed to reduce the risk of damage to forest.

Wielkoobszarowa inwentaryzacja stanu lasu źródłem informacji o powierzchni lasów w Polsce

100%

Jablonski M. , Mionskowski M. , Budniak P.

nr 05

Forest area in Poland is annually evaluated as a part of public statistics research. However, this information is based on land use resulting from Land and Property Register (LPR). Delays in the reclassification of afforested land, as well as the natural expansion of trees on abandoned agricultural lands, observed over the last decades, caused that information from LPR becomes unreliable. In many countries forest area is assessed within the National Forest Inventories (NFIs) based upon systematic grid of sample plots. NFI in Poland has been performed since 2005, in 4×4 kilometre grid with clusters consisting of five plots. Until 2014 measurements were made only on these sample plots which were located in forest according to LPR records. Within the 3rd NFI cycle (2015−2019) the areas fulfilling the criteria of forest definition, but located on non−forest land referring to LPR, has become the object of study. The aim of this work is to present statistical approach for evaluation of forest area using NFI cluster sampling data. Additionally, results from two year measurements (2015−2016) were analysed and compared with LPR data. Attributes of NFI plots allow to apply national forest criteria as well as the land use and land cover thresholds recommended by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations or Kyoto Protocol. Our research shows that forest cover in Poland is in the range of 32.8−33.0%, depending on forest definition used, and is almost 3% higher than official LPR data (30.1%). The standard error of forest cover, based on two years NFI data is 0.44. Thus, with 95% probability the true value of this parameter lies between 31.9 and 33.7%, while country thresholds of forest definition are used. Additionally it was assessed that using the entire NFI cycle data the standard error of forest cover should be lower i.e. less than 0.3. The National Forest Inventory seems to be an appropriate tool for monitoring forest area in Poland.