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2 Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)

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ARE THE CONFIDENCE INDICATORS MEANINGFUL FOR FORECASTING REAL ECONOMY? TESTING POWER OF CONFIDENCE INDICATORS FOR INDUSTRY OUTPUT, PRICES AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE VISEGRÁD GROUP COUNTRIES

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Nežinský E. , Baláž V.

Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)

2016

tom 64

nr 10

923 – 936

This paper examines predictive power of the confidence indicators for developments in industrial output, producer prices and employment in the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, and Poland (V4 countries). The Granger Causality tests are used for establishing potential causation between the confidence indicators and real economy data. The best OLS models with autoregressive terms complemented by confidence indicators are selected and their predictive accuracy is tested against the ARMA benchmarks with the Diebold-Mariano test. All OLS models performed better than the naïve ones .We conclude that the actual CI variables seem to reflect future patterns of economic development in next 1 – 2 months, and not just opinions by economic agents based on current or past economic trajectories.

DO MOTORWAYS INDUCE WIDER ECONOMIC BENEFITS? EVIDENCE FROM THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC

80%

Baláž V. , Dokupilová D. , Nežinský E.

Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)

2018

tom 66

nr 5

431 – 464

This paper analyses wider economic and social impacts of motorways. It analyses the development of socioeconomic variables in the Slovak LAU 1 regions in the period 1997 – 2016. Difference in differences, panel regression with fixed effects, and synthetic control methods (SCM) are applied so as to identify potential long-run effects of motorways on regional economies and societies. The paper finds positive effects of motorways on wages, the number of firms, and internal migration. An SCM is the best procedure for measuring wider economic benefits of motorways when the number of treated units is low or there is only one treated unit.