Fuel Subsidies to Curb Cost-Push Inflation: a Case Study of Pakistan to Assess the Impact of Untargeted Subsidies on Fiscal Space and Current Accounts

• Autorzy: Talha Khalid

Warianty tytułu

Dotacje do paliw w celu ograniczenia inflacji spowodowanej kosztami: studium przypadku Pakistanu badające wpływ nieukierunkowanych dotacji na przestrzeń fiskalną i rachunek bieżący

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

Dotacje do paliw w celu ograniczenia inflacji spowodowanej kosztami: studium przypadku Pakistanu badające wpływ nieukierunkowanych dotacji na przestrzeń fiskalną i rachunek bieżący inflacja, dotacje, analiza częstości dystrybucji, konsolidacja fiskalna, rachunek bieżący. Gwałtowny wzrost światowych cen ropy naftowej, spowodowany stłumionym popytem po COVID-19 i wojnie rosyjsko-ukraińskiej, znacząco przyczynił się do wzrostu inflacji oraz podwójnych deficytów, głównie w gospodarkach rozwijających się. Kierując się zamiarem ograniczenia inflacji, rządy kilku gospodarek zależnych od ropy naftowej wprowadziły środki fiskalne w celu zapewnienia natychmiastowej pomocy gospodarstwom domowym poprzez subsydiowanie składnika paliwowego koszyka konsumpcyjnego. W niniejszym artykule przedstawiono studium przypadku Pakistanu, w którym skuteczność nieukierunkowanych dotacji na benzynę i olej napędowy została porównana z alternatywnymi mechanizmami wypłat bezpośrednich. Z analizy wynika, że w ramach mechanizmu wydatkowania dopłat pośrednich opartych na kontroli cen tylko 11% ogółu dopłat krajowych kierowano do 40% najuboższych gospodarstw domowych, podczas gdy około 55% ogółu dopłat kierowano do 20% segmentu dobrze uposażonych gospodarstw domowych. Następnie w studium przypadku przeanalizowano działanie alternatywnego mechanizmu wypłaty dotacji bezpośrednich, co przekłada się na potencjalne oszczędności fiskalne w wysokości 74,63 mld PKR, przy zapewnieniu pokrycia 40% najniższego segmentu gospodarstw domowych. W tym badaniu oceniono również wpływ przeniesienia rzeczywistych cen na krajową konsumpcję benzyny i oleju napędowego w krótkim okresie, co uwidacznia się w znaczącym zmniejszeniu zużycia ropy naftowej w całkowitym rachunku z 37% do 23%, zapewniając w ten sposób duże odciążenie salda rachunku bieżącego. Ten wynik daje kluczowe wskazówki dla gospodarek, że w celu zinstytucjonalizowania niezbędnego systemu ochrony socjalnej trzeba stopniowo przejść do mechanizmu wypłat dotacji bezpośrednich, przy jednoczesnym dążeniu do powstrzymania inflacji wywołanej przez gwałtowne zmiany światowych cen ropy, poprzez powstrzymywanie wzrostu kosztów.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The rapid surge of global oil prices, on account of the pent-up demand after COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war, has significantly contributed to the cost-push inflation as well as twin deficits, predominantly in developing economies. Motivated by the intention to curb the inflation, governments of several oil-dependent economies have rolled out fiscal measures to provide immediate relief to households through subsidizing the fuel component of the consumption basket. This paper provides a case study of Pakistan, wherein the effectiveness of untargeted gasoline and diesel subsidies has been gauged against alternative direct disbursement mechanisms. The analysis reveals that under the price-control based indirect subsidy disbursement mechanism, only 11% of the total domestic subsidies were directed to the poorest 40% of the households, whereas approximately 55% of the total subsidies were allocated to the 20% of the most liquid household segment. The case study analyzes the performance of alternative direct subsidy disbursement mechanisms which transpires into the potential fiscal savings of PKR 74.63 billion, while providing coverage to 40% of the lowest household segment. The study also evaluates the implication of the pass-through of the true prices on the national consumption of gasoline and diesel in the short-term, which reveals the sharp reduction of petroleum consumption in the total bill from 37% to 23%, thereby providing substantial relief to the current account balance. The finding provides key insights for economies to institutionalize the necessary social protection system and progressively transit to the direct subsidy disbursement mechanism while striving to contain the cost-push-based inflation triggered through the rapid movement of global oil prices.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Inflacja; Subsydiarność; Dystrybucja; Konsolidacja; Rachunek bieżący

EN

Inflation; Subsidiarity; Distribution; Consolidation; Transaction account

• Czasopismo: Polityka Energetyczna
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: 25
• Numer: z. 4
• Strony: 5-26

Twórcy

autor

Talha Khalid

• Central Power Purchasing Agency, Pakistan

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.33223/epj/156594