Information about objective probability of a lottery and the illusion of control

• Autorzy: Karolina Chodzyńska , Mateusz Polak

Abstrakty

EN

This paper investigates the effect of explicitly informing participants about the objective probability of winning a lottery on the illusion of control. In a procedure based on Experiment 3 from Langer’s 1975 seminal paper, participants were faced with lotteries based on familiar vs. unfamiliar stimuli and either explicitly informed about the objective probability of winning or not (the probability could be derived from other data). Results indicated that stating the objective probability of winning the lottery reduced, but not eliminated the illusion of control. Moreover, Langer’s effect of stimulus familiarity was not replicated. Experiment 2, which included a lottery based on the full set of Polish alphabet letters, confirmed the same effects. Results indicate that illusion of control may be explained by the control heuristic (Thompson et al., 1998) – in absence of explicitly stated probability, participants estimate their chances of winning based on perceived control, even though calculating the objective probability is possible.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

decision making; gambling; illusion of control; objective probability; random chance games

• Wydawca: Polska Akademia Nauk
• Czasopismo: Polish Psychological Bulletin
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: 51
• Numer: 4
• Strony: 288-294

Daty

wydano

2020

Twórcy

autor

Karolina Chodzyńska

autor

Mateusz Polak

Identyfikatory

Biblioteka Nauki

2128984