The Impact of COVID-19 on EU-China Trade Flows

• Autorzy: Dominika Choroś-Mrozowska

Warianty tytułu

Wpływ pandemii COVID-19 na wzorce handlu UE-Chiny

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

Można oczekiwać, że trwająca obecnie pandemia COVID-19 przyczyni się do zmiany struktury geograficznej handlu światowego, w tym wymiany między poszczególnymi krajami UE a Chinami. W niniejszym artykule przedstawiono więc wyniki analizy wpływu pandemii COVID-19 na chińsko-unijne przepływy handlowe. Celem badania było uzyskanie odpowiedź na pytanie, czy kraje Unii Europejskiej odnotowały wzmocnienie przewagi konkurencyjnej w handlu z ChRL w którymkolwiek z 21 sektorów HS poprzez zwiększenie wartości znormalizowanego wskaźnika ujawnionej przewagi komparatywnej (NRCA). Ze względu na dużą liczbę obserwacji, których wartości NRCA dla eksportu oscylują w pobliżu zera (sfery neutralnej), w badaniach wykorzystano nierówność Czebyszewa, co pozwoliło na wyodrębnienie tych najbardziej odstających obserwacji. Analiza prowadzona była dla lat 2015-2020, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem roku 2020, w którym odnotowano pierwsze skutki pandemii COVID-19. Stosunki handlowe UE-Chiny były przedmiotem licznych badań, ale ich charakter nie został jeszcze w pełni wyjaśniony, o czym świadczy utrzymujący się przez ponad dwie dekady znaczący deficyt handlowy Wspólnoty. Ten artykuł próbuje wypełnić istniejącą lukę. Analiza handlu UE-ChRL, zwłaszcza w tak kluczowym, z perspektywy historii społeczno-gospodarczej okresie, może przynieść istotne rezultaty. Niniejsza analiza wykazała, że pandemia nie spowodowała spadku wymiany handlowej UE-Chiny. W rzeczywistości światowy handel wzrósł w 2020 r., a większość z 27 krajów UE odnotowała wzrost zarówno w imporcie, jak i eksporcie. Nie nastąpiły również istotne zmiany w strukturze rozkładu przewag komparatywnych. Jednak w przeciwieństwie do wcześniej analizowanych lat (2015-2019), w 2020 r. indeks NRCA wykazuje bardziej płaski rozkład. Sugeruje to, że większość krajów UE o najwyższych przewagach komparatywnych faktycznie odnotowała ich redukcję. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

COVID-19 is expected to have contributed towards changing the geographical structure of world trade, including trade between individual EU countries and China. This article presents the results of an analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Sino-EU trade flows. The research aims to ascertain whether European Union countries noted a strengthening of their competitive advantage in trade with China in any of the 21 HS sections by increasing the value of the normalized revealed comparative advantage index (NRCA). To identify and select the most significant NRCA observations, Chebyshev's inequality was used. The analysis was carried out for 2015 to 2020, with a particular emphasis on 2020, when the first effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were recorded. EU-China trade relations have been the subject of numerous studies, but their nature has not yet been fully elucidated. This article tries to fill that gap. The analysis of mutual trade, especially at such an important moment from the socio-economic perspective, can bring significant results. The analysis revealed that the pandemic did not result in any decline in EU-China trade. In fact, global trade rose in 2020, with most of the 27 EU countries recording increases in both imports and exports. There were also no significant changes in the structure of the distribution of comparative advantage. However, in contrast to the previously analyzed years (2015-2019), in 2020, the NRCA index shows a flatter distribution, suggesting that most EU countries with the highest comparative advantages actually observed reductions in them. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

COVID-19; Handel międzynarodowy; Import; Eksport; Przewaga komparatywna

EN

COVID-19; International trade; Import; Export; Comparative advantage

• Czasopismo: Comparative Economic Research
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: 25
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 161-178

Twórcy

autor

Dominika Choroś-Mrozowska

• Cracow University of Economics, Poland

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.18778/1508-2008.25.34