Warianty tytułu
Ekonomiczne i społeczne implikacje dla polityk COVID-19 : wnioski wynikające z grypy hiszpanki oraz innych pandemii w historii
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
Konwencjonalne podejście do szacowania kosztów ekonomicznych pandemii grypy hiszpanki nie uwzględnia rzeczywistych kosztów ekonomicznych chorób zakaźnych o rozmiarach epidemii, które są wysoce zaraźliwe. Doświadczenia z tych poprzednich pandemii dostarczają cennych informacji o tym, jak myśleć o konsekwencjach COVID-19. Celem artykułu jest wykazanie, że doświadczenia z największych epidemii chorób w historii dostarczają cennych informacji dotyczących COVID-19 oraz szacowania bezpośrednich i pośrednich kosztów pandemii. Łagodzenie pandemii będzie wymagało współpracy i planowania na wszystkich szczeblach rządowych oraz sektora prywatnego. Po doświadczeniach związanych z grypą hiszpanką pojawiają się wątpliwości co do gotowości rządów i ich zdolności do ochrony obywateli przed pandemią. Edukacja publiczna na temat łagodzenia skutków pandemii oraz większe oparcie na organizacjach charytatywnych i wolontariacie mogą być najlepszymi sposobami ochrony obywateli na wypadek przyszłych wydarzeń pandemicznych. Większość badań wskazuje na długoterminowe zmiany w zachowaniu konsumentów i inwestorów, w szczególności zwiększanie oszczędności kosztem inwestycji i wydatków konsumpcyjnych, co zwłaszcza zagrozi sektorowi rozrywki/hotelarstwa. Kraje, w których sektor turystyczny jest ważny, powinny opracowywać polityki minimalizujące wpływ na ten wrażliwy sektor w przypadku wystąpienia epidemii. (abstrakt oryginalny)
The conventional approach in economic costs' estimation of the Spanish influenza underestimates the true economic costs of infectious diseases of epidemic proportions which are highly transmissible. The experience from these previous disease outbreaks provides valuable information on how to think about the implications of COVID-19.
The article's goal is to prove that the experience from previous disease outbreaks provides valuable information for COVID-19 policies and estimates of direct and indirect costs of a pandemic based on major disease outbreaks in history. Mitigating a pandemic will require cooperation and planning by all levels of government and the private sector. Assuming, that citizens want the government to mitigate an influenza outbreak, there should be concern about government's readiness and ability to protect citizens from a pandemic. Public education on flu mitigation, a greater reliance on charitable and volunteer organisations, and a dose of personal responsibility may be the best ways to protect citizens in the event of a future influenza pandemic. Most studies indicate the expected long-term changes in the behaviour of consumers and investors increasing precautionary saving or a rebuilding of depleted wealth which will put at risk the entertainment/hospitality sectors. Countries where the tourism sector is important should be designing policies that can minimise the impact on this vulnerable sector, should an epidemic occur. (author's abstract)
The article's goal is to prove that the experience from previous disease outbreaks provides valuable information for COVID-19 policies and estimates of direct and indirect costs of a pandemic based on major disease outbreaks in history. Mitigating a pandemic will require cooperation and planning by all levels of government and the private sector. Assuming, that citizens want the government to mitigate an influenza outbreak, there should be concern about government's readiness and ability to protect citizens from a pandemic. Public education on flu mitigation, a greater reliance on charitable and volunteer organisations, and a dose of personal responsibility may be the best ways to protect citizens in the event of a future influenza pandemic. Most studies indicate the expected long-term changes in the behaviour of consumers and investors increasing precautionary saving or a rebuilding of depleted wealth which will put at risk the entertainment/hospitality sectors. Countries where the tourism sector is important should be designing policies that can minimise the impact on this vulnerable sector, should an epidemic occur. (author's abstract)
Twórcy
autor
- SGH Warsaw School of Economics; Nevada Governor's Office of Economic Development
Bibliografia
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- [3] Canales K. (2020), Photos Show how San Francisco Emerged from a Lockdown too soon during the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic, Leading to an even Deadlier 2nd Wave that Rampaged through the City, https://www.businessinsider.com/what-san-francisco- can-learn-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus-1918?IR=T, access date: 24.04.2020.
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- [7] Fan V.Y., Jamison D.T., Summers L.H. (2016), The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 22137, Cambridge, USA, March.
- [8] Fan V.Y., Jamison D.T., Summers L.H. (2018), Pandemic Risk: How Large are the Expected Losses? Bull World Health Organ, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.17.199588, pp. 129-134.
- [9] Fottrell Q. (2020), The 1918 Spanish Flu's Second Wave was Even More Devastating': Who Advises Caution to Avoid 'Immediate Second Peak, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-will- -not-have-a-vaccine-by-next-winter-what-happens-when-coronavirus- returns-2020-04-22, access date: 30.10.2020.
- [10] Garrett T.A. (2007), Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Implications for a Modern-day Pandemic, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November, pp. 1-26.
- [11] Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (2019), A World at Risk. Annual Report on Global Preparedness for Health Emergencies, https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/annual_report/GPMB_annualreport_ 2019.pdf, access date: 15.05.2020.
- [12] Hagemann H. (2020), The 1918 Flu Pandemic Was Brutal, Killing More than 50 Million People Worldwide, https://www. npr.org/2020/04/02/826358104/the-1918-flu-pandemic- -was-brutal-killing-as-many-as-100-million-people-worldwide? t=1609298097972, access date: December 30th, 2020, access date: 22.04.2020.
- [13] Jonung L., Roeger W. (2006), The Macroeconomic Effects of a Pandemic in Europe. A Model-based Assessment, Directorate- -General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission Economic Paper, Brussels, June.
- [14] Karlsson M., Nilsson T., Pichler S. (2013), The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden. An Investigation into the Consequences of an Extraordinary Mortality Shock, Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), April.
- [15] McKibbin W., Fernando R. (2020), The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios, Australian National University; the Brookings Institution; and Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), March.
- [16] Noy I., Shields S. (2019), The 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic: A Retroactive Examination of Economic Costs, Asian Development Bank, Economics Working Paper Series No. 591, October.
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- [18] Radusin M. (2012), The Spanish Flu - Part II: The Second and Third Wave, Vojnosanitetski Pregled 69, No. 10, pp. 917-927.
- [19] Roos D. (2020), Why the Second Wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic Was So Deadly, https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second- wave-resurgence, access date: 30.12.2020.
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- [21] Snyder H. (2019), Literature Review as a Research Methodology: An Overview and Guidelines, "Journal of Business Research", No. 104, pp. 333-339.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171617252
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