Ukrainian Migration Aspirations towards Germany : Analysis and Development Scenarios

• Autorzy: Vitalii Boiko , Olha Mulska , Ihor Baranyak , Olha Levytska

Warianty tytułu

Aspiracje migracyjne Ukraińców do Niemiec : analiza i scenariusze rozwoju

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

Na podstawie modelu regresji wielokrotnej i podejścia scenariuszowego do prognoz oszacowano ukraińskie aspiracje migracyjne do Niemiec (skala migracji, aktywność gospodarcza migrantów i ich korzyści ekonomiczne). Argumentuje się, że poważne zmiany w strukturze wiekowej i płci ludności lokalnej mogą powodować kryzys demograficzny i utratę równowagi na rynku pracy. Przedstawione prognozy wskazują na rosnącą rolę zagranicznych zasobów ludzkich w niemieckiej gospodarce. Modelując skalę emigracji z Ukrainy zastosowano podejście zintegrowane, uwzględniające nie tylko trendy czynników przyciągających, ale także szczególne aspekty niemieckiej polityki migracyjnej i odpływ 8-10 milionów ukraińskich pracowników. Biorąc pod uwagę brak wystarczających danych statystycznych dotyczących skali emigracji zarobkowej, potrzebnych do budowy wiarygodnych modeli ekonometrycznych, uzasadniono, że zastosowanie eksperckiej metody prognozowania pozostaje optymalną techniką oceny potencjalnych przepływów migracyjnych i systemów migracji. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Based on the multiple regression model and scenario approach to forecasting, the article estimates the Ukrainian migration aspirations towards Germany (the scale of migration, the economic activity of migrants, and their economic benefits). It is argued that major transformations in the gender-age structure of the German population may cause a demographic crisis and labour market imbalances. Our projections indicate the growing role of foreign human resources in the German economy. When modelling the scale of emigration from Ukraine, an integrated approach is applied, considering not only trends of pull-push factors but also special aspects of the German migration policy and the outflow of 8-10 million Ukrainian migrant workers. Given the poor statistical data on the scale of labour emigration needed for constructing reliable econometric models, the use of expert forecasting method remains the most optimal technique for assessing potential migration flows and migration systems. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Migracja; Polityka migracyjna

EN

Migration; Migration policy

• Czasopismo: Comparative Economic Research
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: 24
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 65-84

Twórcy

autor

Vitalii Boiko

• Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine,

autor

Olha Mulska

• National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine

autor

Ihor Baranyak

• National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine

autor

Olha Levytska

• National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.18778/1508-2008.24.04