Analysis of the CPI Inflation Index of Selected World Economies in the Aspect of Safety

• Autorzy: Bartosz Kozicki , Paweł Jaskiewicz , Jarosław Tomaszewski , Grzegorz Mizura
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article deals with the problem of analyzing and assessing the CPI inflation index of selected world economies and attempts to forecast the CPI inflation index - (Consumer Price Index) in China in terms of security. The other two indices, i.e. the GDP Deflator and PPI- (Production Price Index) will not be analyzed. The study began with the analysis and assessment of CPI inflation indices in selected global economies. Then, an analysis and assessment of the time series of the CPI inflation index in China were carried out. For research purposes, the series has been shortened by the last nine periods. The obtained results were used to select and apply various methods to forecast CPI inflation in China based on a shorter series called the learning one in the literature. The obtained forecasts were compared, and then subjected to analysis and assessment. The best forecasting method for 15 periods was chosen based on the CPI inflation time series in China in retrospective terms. The obtained research results are presented in the summary.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Prognozowanie; Inflacja; Bezpieczeństwo; Bezpieczeństwo ekonomiczne

EN

Forecasting; Inflation; Security; Economic safety

• Czasopismo: Systemy Logistyczne Wojsk
• Rocznik: 2020
• Numer: z. 53
• Strony: 21-31

Twórcy

autor

Bartosz Kozicki

• Wojskowa Akademia Techniczna w Warszawie

autor

Paweł Jaskiewicz

• Wojskowa Akademia Techniczna w Warszawie

autor

Jarosław Tomaszewski

• Ministerstw obrony Narodowej

autor

Grzegorz Mizura

• Ministerstwo Obrony Narodowej

Bibliografia

• Begg, D., Vernasca, G., Fischer, S., Dornbusch, R. (2014). Macroeconomics, Wydanie V. Warszawa: PWE.
• Cieślak, M. (2001). (red). Economic forecasting. Methods and application. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.
• Dittmann, P. i in., (2016). Forecasting in enterprise management. Wydawnictwo Nieoczywiste, Imprint GAB Media.
• Greń, J., (1978). Methodological aspects of economic forecasting, Przegląd Statystyczny, nr 1, Warszawa: PWN.
• Nurzyńska, A. (2016). Security of services in international passenger air transport. Katowice: Wydawnictwo Naukowe SOPHIA.
• Zeliaś, A. (1997). Theory of a forecast. Warszawa: PWE.
• Zięba, R. (2012). On the identity of security sciences. Zeszyty Naukowe AON nr 1(86).
• Feldstein, M. Harvard University https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/05/whats-causing-americas- low-inflation/

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.37055/slw/133854