Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the European Union: a Causality Analysis

• Autorzy: Tomasz Grodzicki , Mateusz Jankiewicz

Warianty tytułu

Zużycie energii i wzrost gospodarczy w Unii Europejskiej - analiza przyczynowości

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

Sektor energetyczny jest jedną z najważniejszych kwestii w polityce gospodarczej Unii Europejskiej, ponieważ ma duży wpływ na jakość życia i wzrost gospodarczy. Celem tego artykułu jest zbadanie związku przyczynowego między zużyciem energii a wzrostem gospodarczym w Unii Europejskiej na podstawie danych z lat 1960-2015. Wyniki empiryczne uzyskane przy pomocy testu przyczynowości w sensie Grangera wyraźnie wskazują, że zużycie energii przyczyniło się do wzrostu gospodarczego w Unii Europejskiej. Mówiąc ściślej, wzrost zużycia energii prowadził do wzrostu PKB per capita w następnym okresie. Związek ten jest często nazywany hipotezą wzrostu, co oznacza, że zużycie energii może stymulować wzrost gospodarczy. Badanie to analizuje również odwrotną zależność: wpływ wzrostu gospodarczego na zmianę zużycia energii, co nazywa się hipotezą konserwacyjną. Analiza ta nie wykazała jednak, że wzrost gospodarczy nie wpływa na zużycie energii w UE w badanym okresie. W analizie badanej zależności wykorzystano wektorowy model autoregresji (VAR). Ponadto analiza odpowiedzi na impuls pokazuje zachowanie obydwu procesów wskutek jednostkowej, nieoczekiwanej zmiany jednego z nich. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Energy sector is one of the most important matters in the economic policies of the European Union since it has a significant impact on the quality of life and economic growth. The aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the European Union, based on the data from the period of 1960-2015. Using a Granger causality test, empirical results clearly indicate that energy consumption contributed to economic growth in the European Union. More precisely, an increase in energy consumption led to an increase in GDP per capita growth in the next period. This relationship is often called a growth hypothesis, which implies that energy consumption can stimulate economic growth. This research also analyzed the opposite relationship: the impact of economic growth on the change in energy consumption, which is called conservation hypothesis. However, this analysis has not proved such an impact in the considered period. The vector autoregression model (VAR) was used in the dependency analysis. In addition, an analysis of the impulse response shows the behavior of both processes as a result of a unitary, unexpected change in one of them. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Zużycie energii; Wzrost gospodarczy; Analiza przyczynowości; Przyczynowość w sensie Grangera

EN

Energy use; Economic growth; Causality analysis; Granger casuality

• Czasopismo: Ekonomista
• Rocznik: 2020
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 616-627

Twórcy

autor

Tomasz Grodzicki

• Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Poland, doktorant

autor

Mateusz Jankiewicz

• Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Poland, doktorant

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