Forecasting on the Long-Term Sustainability of the Employees Provident fund in Malaysia via the Box-Jenkins' ARIMA Model

• Autorzy: Sallahuddin Hassan , Zalila Othman
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This study employs the use of Box-Jenkins' ARIMA (1,1,0) model for the estimation and forecasts based on the annual data of EPF balances, which serve as a proxy to EPF sustainability, together with the yearly data of possible determinants namely investment earnings, nominal income, elderly population, life expectancy and mortality rate in Malaysia for the 1960 - 2010 and 2010 - 2014 periods, respectively. Amid a negative sentiment and conceivably bleak outlook on the long term EPF inadequacy to provide adequate incomes to elderly persons, the prognosis of this study instead reveals otherwise and is found to be in support for the long term prospect and sustainability of the EPF. With necessary improvements are underway to strengthen the performance of the administered EPF system, it is likely to believe that the EPF organization is committed to promoting its product as a more inclusive and equitable scheme in Malaysia.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Fundusze emerytalne; Pracownicze Programy Emerytalne (PPE); Stabilność finansowa; Prognozowanie; Modele ARIMA

EN

Pension funds; Employee pension programmes; Financial sustainability; Forecasting; Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models

• Czasopismo: Business and Economic Horizons
• Rocznik: 2018
• Numer: vol. 14, iss. 1
• Strony: 43-53

Twórcy

autor

Sallahuddin Hassan

• Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia

autor

Zalila Othman

• Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15208/beh.2018.4