Econometric Analysis of the Relationships Between GDP and the Current and Capital Account for the Visegrad Group of Countries in 1994-2015

• Autorzy: Dariusz J. Błaszczuk , Janusz Sawicki
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In the paper the relationships between current and capital account balance and GDP are analysed, both from the economic analysis and applied points of view. Next the assumptions, method of analysis and results of our investigation of these relationships are discussed in details. We used yearly data for the Visegrad Group countries in 1994-2015. We applied two versions of linear econometric models and a power one for panel data and for every country separately. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Bilans płatniczy; Rachunek bieżący; Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB); Modele ekonometryczne; Analiza ekonometryczna; Stabilność finansowa

EN

Balance of payments; Transaction account; Gross domestic product (GDP); Econometric models; Econometric analysis; Financial sustainability

• Czasopismo: Information Systems in Management
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: 6
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 270-283

Twórcy

autor

Dariusz J. Błaszczuk

• Vistula University, Poland

autor

Janusz Sawicki

• Institute for Market and Business Cycle Research (IBRKK)

Bibliografia

• [1] 2014 EBA: Individual Country Estimates (2014) IMF, http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/eba/pdf/2014estimates.pdf [12.10.2016].
• [2] 2014 Pilot External Sector Report (2014) IMF Multilateral Pollicy Issues Report, IMF 29 July, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/062614.pdf [15.10.2016].
• [3] Alert Mechanism Report (2016) http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/macroeconomic_imbalance_procedure/alert_mechanism_report/index_en.htm, [17.11.16].
• [4] Allen F., Gale D. (2009) Undesrtanding Financial Crisis, Oxford University Press, New York, USA.
• [5] Bagnai A. (2010) CEEC vs. PIGS: a comparative assessment of financial sustainability and twin deficits, LLEE Working Document No. 89, http://www.luiss.edu/dptea/files/LLEE Working Documents 89.pdf [18.10.2015].
• [6] Bagnai A. (2010) Twin deficits in CEEC economies: evidence from panel unit root test, Economics Bulletin Vol. 30, no. 2: 1071-1081 http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I2-P100.pdf [18.10.2015].
• [7] Blanchard O., Leigh D., Fiscal consolidation: At what speed?, VOX CEPR's Policy Portal, 3 May 2013, http://www.voxeu.org/article/fiscal-consolidation-what-speed [15.11.2016].
• [8] Błaszczuk D.J. (2014) Podstawy prognozowania, symulacji i sterowania optymalnego, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa, Poland.
• [9] Burda M., Wyplosz Ch. (2000) Makroekonomia - Podręcznik europejski, PWE, Warszawa, Poland.
• [10] Edwards S. (2002) Does the Current Account Matter?, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, USA, http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10633.pdf [21.10.2015].
• [11] Frankel J., Saravelos G. (2012) Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis, Journal of International Economics, vol. 87: 216-231, https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/5027952/RWP11-024_Frankel.pdf?sequence=1 [24.10.2015].
• [12] Gourinchas P.-O., Rey H. (2013) External Adjustment, Global Imbalances and Valuation Effects, NBER Working Paper no. 19240, Cambridge, Mass., USA, http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~pog/academic/HB_POGHR_0325.pdf [27.10.2015].
• [13] Gruber J., Kamin S. (2005) Explaining the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 846, https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/846/ifdp846.pdf, [30.10.2015].
• [14] IMF Surveillance in Europe (2015), ECB Occasional Paper Series No. 158, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop158.en.pdf [04.05.2016].
• [15] In-Depth Reviews (2016) http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/macroeconomic_imbalance_procedure/in-depth_reviews/index_en.htm [11.11.2016].
• [16] http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=60947517 [30.09.2016].
• [17] http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/ameco/user/serie/SelectSerie.cfm [5.10.2016].
• [18] http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browse.do?node=9689721 [5.10.2016].
• [19] http://stats.oecd.org/ [1.05.2016].
• [20] Johnson H.G. (1976) Towards the General Theory; The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory, Frankel J., Johnson H. [ed.] The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments, George Allen & Unwin Ltd., London, UK, 46-63 and 147-167.
• [21] Jordà Ò., Schularick M., Taylor A.M. (2010) Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons, NBER Working Paper No. 16567, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.188.1363&rep=rep1&type=pdf [15.05.2014].
• [22] Korotayev, A., Tsirel, S. (2010) A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008-2009 Economic Crisis, Structure and Dynamics no. 1; vol. 4, 3-57, http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9jv108xp [10.10.2015].
• [23] Krueger A.O. (1969) Balance of Payments Theory, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 7, No. 1, 1-26, http://econpapers.repec.org/article/aeajeclit/v_3a7_3ay_3a1969_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a1-26.htm [12.10.2016].
• [24] Krugman P. (1999) Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises, International Tax and Public Finance, no. 6: 459-472, http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/krugmanbalance.pdf, [15.11.2016].
• [25] Macroeconomic Imbalances. Main Findings of the In-Depth Reviews 2015 (2015) European Economy, Occasional Papers 228, June, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/occasional_paper/2015/pdf/ocp228_en.pdf [17.11.2016].
• [26] McCombie, J.S.L., Thirlwall, A.P. (2004) Essays on Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, Routledge, London, UK, New York, USA https://www.questia.com/read/107330414/essays-on-balance-of-payments-constrained-growth [30.11.2014.].
• [27] Methodological Note on EBA-LITE, February 2016 https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2016/020516.pdf [12.05.2016].
• [28] Michalski R. (2001) Analiza kryzysów finansowych w wybranych krajach w latach dziewięćdziesiątych, Błaszczuk D. J. [ed.] Ryzyko kryzysu finansowego w Polsce, Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnicze LAM, Warszawa, Poland, 11-37.
• [29] Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin, A. (1996) Sustainability of persistent current account deficits, NBER Working Paper no. 5467, Cambridge, Mass., USA, https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/5467.html [10.08.2013].
• [30] Obstfeld M. & al. (2005) The trilemma in history: tradeoffs among exchange rates, monetary policies, and capital mobility. Review of Economics and Statistics 87: 423-438, http://eml.berkeley.edu/~obstfeld/ost12.pdf [13.08.2013].
• [31] Panko R.R. (2008) What We Know About Spreadsheet Errors, Journal of End User Computing's, Volume 10, No 2. Spring 1998: 15-21, Revised May 2008, http://panko.shidler.hawaii.edu/ssr/ [21.10.2014].
• [32] Phillips S. at al. (2013) The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology. IMF Working Paper 13/272, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13272.pdf [15.06.2014].
• [33] Regulation (2011) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 November 2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances, http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=URISERV:ec0019&from=PL [18.11.2016].
• [34] Sawicki J. (2012) Unia Gospodarcza - droga do pułapki zadłużenia, IBRKK, Warszawa, Poland.
• [35] Świerkocki J. (2004) Zarys międzynarodowych stosunków gospodarczych, PWE, Warszawa, Poland.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.22630/ISIM.2017.6.4.2