Cykle mieszkaniowe na polskim rynku nieruchomości

• Autorzy: Piotr Lis

Warianty tytułu

Housing Cycles in the Polish Real Estate Market

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W opracowaniu podjęto problematykę cykliczności rynków mieszkaniowych przedstawiając syntezę prac badawczych, nawiązując do metod badawczych i weryfikując je na przykładzie Polski. Wskazano potrzebę uwzględnienia wahań cyklicznych lokalnych rynków mieszkaniowych w procesie wyceny. Znajomość przebiegu cykli mieszkaniowych powinna być jednym z ważnym kryteriów zarówno weryfikujących bazę danych cen transakcyjnych nieruchomości przyjętych do wyceny, jak i potencjału dochodowego nieruchomości. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

This work offers a discussion over the matter of housing market cycles, presenting a synthesis of various studies and referring to research methods, as well as verifying these methods on the basis of Poland. What has been indicated is the need to include cyclical fluctuations of local housing markets in the process of valuation. Possessing the knowledge of the functioning of housing cycles shall be one the main criteria used for verifying both the data base of transactional prices for the real estate accepted for valuation as well as the potential income from the real estate. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Budownictwo mieszkaniowe; Wycena nieruchomości; Rynek nieruchomości; Ceny nieruchomości

EN

Housing construction; Real estate valuation; Real estate market; Real estate prices

• Czasopismo: Biuletyn Stowarzyszenia Rzeczoznawców Majątkowych Województwa Wielkopolskiego
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: 43
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 47-53

Twórcy

autor

Piotr Lis

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

Bibliografia

• Augustyniak H., Łaszek J., Olszewski K., Waszczuk J., 2013, Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market - interactions between the primary and the secondary market and multiplier effects, National Bank of Poland Working Papers, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute 143, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
• Barras R., 2009, Building Cycles, Growth & Instability, John Willey & Sons, Chichester.
• Bordo M.D., Jeanne O., 2002, Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy, NBER Working Paper Nr. 8966. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass.
• Bry G., Boschan Ch. 1971, Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.
• Burns A.F., 1935, Long Cycles in Residential Construction, Princeton University Press, w: Economic Essays in Honor of Wesley Clair Mitchell. NY: Columbia University Press, s.63-104.
• Cayen, J.P., van Norden, S., 2004, The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates, Deutsche Bundesbank, Series 1: Studies of the Economic Research Centre, No 29/2004.
• Conrad, M. 1881, Die Entwicklung der Häuserpreise in Freiburg I Br. Während der Letzten Hundert Jahre, Jena.
• Detken C., Smets F., 2004, Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy, ECB Working Paper 364, European Central Bank, Frankfurt/Main.
• Égert B., Mihaljek D., 2007, Determinants of house prices in Central and Eastern Europe, BIS Working Papers No 236, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland.
• Eisenlohr R., 1921, Das Arbeiter-Siedlungswesen der Stadt Mannheim, Karlsruhe.
• Eychmüller F., 1915, Grundstücksmarkt und städtische Bodenpolitik in Ulm von 1870-1910, Stuttgart, Tübingen, s.87.
• Ferrara, L., Koopman, S.J., 2011, Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition, in: de Bandt, O., et al. (eds), Housing Markets in Europe: A Macroeconomic Perspective, Springer - Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
• Grebler L., Blank D.M., Winnick L., 1956, Capital Formation in Residential Real Estate: Trends and Prospects, Princeton University Press for NBER.
• Guttentag J., 1961, The Short Cycle in Residential Construction 1946-1959, American Economic Review, June.
• Harding D., Pagan A., 2002, Dissecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 49, s.365-381.
• Harvey, A.C., 2001, Testing in unobserved components models, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, Issue 1.
• Hoyt H., 1933, One hundred years of land values in Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
• Igan D., Lounganiego P., 2012, Global Housing Cycles, IMF Working Paper WP/12/217, International Monetary Fund.
• Koopman, S.J., Harvey, A.C., Doornik, J.A., Shephard, N., 2009, Structural Time Series Analyser, Modeller and Predictor, STAMP 8.2., Timberlake Consultants Ltd.
• Leamer E.E., 2007, Housing is the business cycle, NBER Working Paper 13428, National Bureau Of Economic Research, Cambridge.
• Lucas R. E., 1977, Understanding business cycles, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5 (1), s.7-29.
• Łaszek J., 2008, Cykliczność rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych, w: Kucharska - Stasiak E., Cykle rynku nieruchomości a cykle bankowe, Fundacja na Rzecz Kredytu Hipotecznego, Warszawa.
• Mangoldt R.V., 1907, Die Städtische Bodenfrage Eine Untersuchung über die Tatsachen, Ursachen, und Abhilfe, Vanderhoeck and Ruprecht, s.745.
• Musso A., Neri S., Stracca L., 2010, Housing, consumption and monetary policy how different are the US and the euro area?, Working Paper Series No 1161, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main.
• Newman, W.H., 1935, The Building Industry and Business Cycles, Chicago: University of Chicago Press za: T.A. Veenstra, 1936, The Building Industry and Business Cycles by William H. Newman, The Journal of Land & Public Utility Economics, Vol. 12, No. 1, s.105-106.
• Nyblom, J., Makelainen, T., 1983, Comparisons of Tests for the Presence of Random Walk Coefficients in a Simple Linear Model, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.78, No.384.
• Reich E., 1912, Der Wohnungsinarkt in Berlin von 1840-1910, zacytowany w: Barras R., 2009, Building Cycles: Growth and Instability, Wiley-Blackwell, UK, s.49.
• Reinhart C.M., Rogoff K.S., 2008, Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison, NBER Working Paper No. 13761, National Bureau Of Economic Research, Cambridge.
• Spiethoff A., 1934, Boden und Wohnung, Heft 20, Bonner Staatswissenschaftiche Untersuchungen. Jena.
• Stepanyan V., Poghosyan T., Bibolov A., 2010, House Price Determinants in Selected Countries of the Former Soviet Union, IMF Working Paper WP/10/104, International Monetary Fund.
• Trojanek R., 2008, Wahania cen na rynku mieszkaniowym, Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, Poznań.
• Zarzecki M., 2014, Myślenie owiec, Gazeta Prawna, Nr 83/84.