Prognozowana dynamika zysków spółek a obciążenie błędów prognoz - doświadczenia polskie

• Autorzy: Jacek Welc

Warianty tytułu

Forecasted Earnings Growth of Companies and Earnings Forecast Bias - Polish Experience

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Prognozowanie zysków spółek stanowi istotny element większości modeli wyceny akcji. Jednak dokonania analityków w kontekście dokładności budowanych przez nich prognoz wydają się raczej rozczarowujące. Oprócz niskiej dokładności, prognozy analityków nie uwzględniają wielu istotnych statystycznych i księgowych właściwości raportowanych wyników finansowych. W niniejszym artykule zbadano statystyczną zależność między oczekiwanym tempem wzrostu zysków a skalą i kierunkiem błędów prognoz zysków w przypadku spółek notowanych na warszawskiej Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych. Badanie potwierdziło, że analitycy wykazują tendencję do nadmiernego optymizmu/nadmiernego pesymizmu w przypadku prognozowania zysków spółek o stsounkowo szybkiej/wolnej oczekiwanej dynamice zysku.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Corporate earnings forecasts constitute an essential element of most models of valuing stocks. However, the achievements of analysts in terms of forecast accuracy seem to be rather disappointing. Apart from low accuracy, their predictions tend also to neglect important statistical and accounting relationships of reported financial results. In this paper we examine the statistical relationship between the expected pace of earnings growth and the scope and direction of earnings forecasts errors in case of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The investigation confirmed that analysts tend to be over-optimistic/ over-pessimistic when predicting the earnings of companies characterized by relatively fast/ slow expected growth of earnings.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Prognozowanie; Zysk; Analiza fundamentalna

EN

Forecasting; Profit; Fundamental analysis

• Czasopismo: Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
• Rocznik: 2013
• Numer: nr 323 Inwestycje finansowe i ubezpieczenia - tendencje światowe a rynek polski
• Strony: 357-365

Twórcy

autor

Jacek Welc

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu

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