Using Survey Data for Labor Market Leading Index

• Autorzy: Maria Drozdowicz-Bieć , Robert Pater , Marian Wargacki
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The main objective of this paper is to introduce and discuss the results of a newly composed leading indicator for the Polish labor market. It was constructed as one of the tools to improve forecasting techniques of labor market changes, be able to inform the entrepreneurs of new tendencies and prevent growing unemployment. The other goal is to recognize and monitor structural unemployment. We start to develop the Labor Market Leading Index for two regions in Poland. Those regions, Podkarpackie and Lubelskie voivodeships, are two of the less industrialized regions in Poland, with high unemployment rate (around 18%), low-skilled labor, lowest wages in the country, and a large economic migration abroad. On the other hand, foreign direct investment intensified in this area during 2005, which created additional demand for labor. All this gave us the opportunity to asses the usefulness of this leading indicator as a tool for monitoring structural changes in the labor market. As the main components, we considered data from business, trade, building and consumer surveys. Regional labor market conditions expectations and the confidence about future business performance are the main components obtained from the survey. Sometimes, changes in consumers' or managers' confidence may not move in the same direction as the labor market; an improvement in business may not always lead to higher job creation. To estimate the new job creation process we introduce The Help Wanted Index for Poland, which measures the number of job ads in a leading Polish daily paper. The Help Wanted Index methodology is adjusted to Polish economic circumstances. The performance of the created indicator is tested against a chosen coincident labor market indicator. The Index we propose measures labor market conditions and gives additional information on structural unemployment. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Rynek pracy; Prognozowanie; Wskaźniki ekonomiczne; Bezrobocie strukturalne

EN

Labour market; Forecasting; Economic indicators; Structural unemployment

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2008
• Numer: nr 79 Survey data in economic research : Polish contribution to the 28th CIRET Conference
• Strony: 118-148

Twórcy

autor

Maria Drozdowicz-Bieć

autor

Robert Pater

autor

Marian Wargacki

Bibliografia

• Banerji A., (1999), The Three Ps: Simple Tools for Monitoring Economic Cycles, Business Economics.
• Bleakley H., Fuhrer J.C., (1997), Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, Job Matching, and Labor Market Dynamics, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
• Drozdowicz-Bieć M., (2003), Composite Leading Indexes for Polish Economy, Warsaw.
• Drozdowicz-Bieć M., Zarnovitz V., (2000), The Coincident and Leading Indexes for Poland after Two Years of Observation, Paper on 25th CIRET Conference, Paris.
• Drozdowicz-Bieć M., Pater R., Wargacki M., (2005), Barometr Ofert Pracy a rynek pracy w Polsce, [in:] Rynek usług finansowych a rozwój gospodarki. Diagnozowanie i prognozowanie koniunktury, J. Garczarczyk, (Ed.), Poznań.
• Hall R.E., (2005), Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy over the Past Fifty Years, NBER Working Paper 11678.
• Hall R.E., (2004), The Labor Market is the Key to Understanding the Business Cycle, Hoover Institution.
• Help-Wanted Index 1981-1998, (1999), Statistics Canada, Catalogue no 71-540-XIE, Vol.3, Ottawa.
• Mitchell W.C., (1960), Business Cycles and their Causes, University of California Press, Berkeley Los Angeles.
• Moore G.H., Shiskin J., (1967), Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, NBER, New York.
• OppenlanderK.H., (2002), Business Cycle Survey Data: Definition, Importance, and Application, Paper on 26th CIRET Conference, Taipei.
• Phelps E.S., (1972), Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory, Macmillan, Norton, New York, London.
• Preston N.L., (1974), The Help-Wanted Index, The Conference Board, New York.
• Shimer R., (2005), Mismatch, NBER Working Paper 11888.
• Stock J.H., Watson M.W., (1992), A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators : Econometric Issues and Recent Experience, NBER Working Paper, 4014, New York.
• Stock J.H., Watson M.W., (1989), New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, O.J. Blanchard and S. Fischer, (Ed.), pp. 351-394. Cambridge, MIT Press.
• Tatom J.A., (2004), Manufacturing Employment, Productivity and the Busines Cycle. Background Paper, No. 42, Tax Foundation.
• Wskaźniki wyprzedzające, (2006), M. Drozdowicz-Bieć, (Ed.), Prace i Materiały IRG SGH, No. 77, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie.
• Zarnovitz, V., (1978), Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators, NBER Working Paper 244.