The Usefulness of Business Surveys Data for Short-Term Forecasting Raw Data vs Seasonally Adjusted and Smoothed One

• Autorzy: Elżbieta Adamowicz , Sławomir Dudek , Konrad Walczyk
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The main aim of this paper is to show how important are seasonal adjustment and smoothing the data from business tendency surveys in analyses and short-term forecasting of economic activity (a quantitative index). Using data for Poland (the business tendency surveys in manufacturing conducted by RIED, WSE), the authors try to show that the course of transition of the economy from centrally-planned regime to market one is characterised by changes of a seasonal pattern of industrial activity. This makes any conclusions drawn from an analysis of raw BTS indicators be possibly misleading and calls for application of seasonal adjustment methods which are able to model variable seasonality. In order to conduct this research the authors decompose time series of qualitative indicators into seasonal and irregular factors and a trend+cycle component, using the TRAMO-SEATS procedure. Next the authors study patterns of seasonal factors and its changes throughout the transition process and, finally, consistency and correlation of a quantitative manufacturing index with qualitative indicators resulting from the business tendency surveys, seasonally adjusted and smoothed. Using this data some short-term forecasts are made. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Koniunktura gospodarcza; Sezonowość; Prognozowanie

EN

Business trends; Seasonal character; Forecasting

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2005
• Numer: nr 75 Economic tendency surveys and cyclical indicators : Polish contribution to the 27th CIRET conference
• Strony: 77-97

Twórcy

autor

Elżbieta Adamowicz

• Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

autor

Sławomir Dudek

• Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

autor

Konrad Walczyk

• Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

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