Spectral Analysis of Growth Cycles

• Autorzy: Wiesław Łuczyński , Zbigniew Matkowski
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

The aim of this paper is to analyse by means of spectral analysis cyclical changes in statistical indicators reflecting the development of Poland's economy in the period of 1975-2002. The dynamics of the aggregate economic activity is reflected by the General Coincident Indicator (GCI), developed by Z. Matkowski. It is a proxy to the nonexistent monthly GDP statistics, calculated as a weighted average of indexes showing the output or sales volumes in five major sectors of economy: industry, construction, agriculture, transports, and trade, weighted by their yearly shares in GDP. The component series have been compiled from the official statistics. The paper is a follow-up study to our earlier research (Łuczyński and Matkowski, 1999) on the subject. However, this study brings new results based on updated time series and it employs another concept of growth cycle, which is now analysed in terms of growth rates rather than trend deviations. (fragment tekstu)

EN

The aim of this paper is to analyse by means of spectral analysis cyclical changes in statistical indicators reflecting the development of Poland's economy in the period of 1975-2002. The dynamics of the aggregate economic activity is reflected by the General Coincident Indicator (GCI), developed by Z. Matkowski. It is a proxy to the nonexistent monthly GDP statistics, calculated as a weighted average of indexes showing the output or sales volumes in five major sectors of economy: industry, construction, agriculture, transports, and trade, weighted by their yearly shares in GDP. The component series have been compiled from the official statistics. The paper is a follow-up study to our earlier research (Łuczyński and Matkowski, 1999) on the subject. However, this study brings new results based on updated time series and it employs another concept of growth cycle, which is now analysed in terms of growth rates rather than trend deviations. (fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Metody prognozowania; Wzrost gospodarczy; Wskaźniki ekonomiczne

EN

Forecasting methods; Economic growth; Economic indicators

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2004
• Numer: nr 74 Composite indicators of business activity for macroeconomic analysis
• Strony: 271-281

Twórcy

autor

Wiesław Łuczyński

• Economic Academy of Poznań

autor

Zbigniew Matkowski

• Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

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