Znaczenie krzywej dochodowości dla uczestników rynku finansowego

• Autorzy: Urszula Ziarko-Siwek

Warianty tytułu

Yield Curve Importance to Agents of Financial Market

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Krzywa dochodowa jest niezmiernie ważnym instrumentem , którego ciągła analiza może dostarczać uczestnikom rynku finansowego informacji na temat oczekiwanych stóp procentowych, oczekiwań inflacyjnych oraz oczekiwanej sytuacji gospodarczej. (fragment tekstu)

EN

This paper presents yield curve and its importance to financial markets, especially to central bank. The aim of this paper is presenting the theoretical and practical relationships between the term structure of interest rates and the path of future interest rates, future inflation and economic growth. The first aim of this paper is presenting of possibilities the yield curve to forecast interest rates. The forecasting ability of the yield curve depends on the expectations theory and connection between implied forward rate and future interest rate. Knowing the path of future interest rates is important especially for investors, issuers and central bank. In this paper I'm summing up the main results of research examining the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the path of future inflation. Analyzing the research of this relationship in foreign countries we can observe that the relationship between the spread and future inflation is different at the short end of the term structure and at the long one. In the shorter maturity the term structure provides almost no information about the future inflation, but at longer horizons the slope of term structure of interest rates has predictive power for future changes in inflation. In most of research we can read the important conclusion - central banks should use the term structure as a guide for assessing inflationary pressures, but on the other hand they should be cautious in drawing conclusions from it. The last part of paper is about ability of yield curve to make forecast of future growth. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Krzywa dochodowości; Rynki finansowe; Stopa procentowa; Inflacja; Polityka pieniężna; Struktura terminowa stóp procentowych

EN

Yield curve; Financial markets; Interest rate; Inflation; Monetary policy; Term structure of interest rates

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu
• Rocznik: 2005
• Numer: nr 52
• Strony: 91-110

Twórcy

autor

Urszula Ziarko-Siwek

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