Exchange Rate Dynamics and Unemployment in Eastern European Countries

• Autorzy: Victor Shevchuk
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper investigates the relationship between a nominal exchange rate and the unemployment rate, as well as wage and consumer price inflation (CPI) rates, based on time-varying parameter (TVP) estimates. The rest of the paper is structured as follows: section 2 briefly overviews the theoretical model with accelerationist Phillips curve, which sketches the exchange rate effects upon unemployment, wage and inflation rates, thus providing the guidelines for empirical estimations. Section 3 describes data and Granger causality tests for five countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia. Section 4 presents estimations of the exchange rate effects using the Kalman filter. Finally, a few tentative conclusions are offered in section 5. (fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Kurs walutowy; Stopa bezrobocia; Kształtowanie kursu walutowego

EN

Exchange rates; Unemployment rate; Exchange rate developments

• Czasopismo: Studia i Prace Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
• Rocznik: 2009
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 63-78

Twórcy

autor

Victor Shevchuk

• Cracow University of Technology, Poland

Bibliografia

• Arendt L. [2006], Czy w Polsce występuje efekt histerezy bezrobocia?, "Gospodarka Narodowa", nr 11-12.
• Boeri T., Terrell K. [2002], Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition, "Journal of Economic Perspectives", vol. 16, nr 1.
• Camarero M., Carrion-i-Silvestre J., Tamarit C. [2005], Unemployment Dynamics and NAIRU Estimates for Accession Countries: A Univariate Approach, "Journal of Comparative Economics", vol. 33, nr4.
• Gitter R., Scheuer M. [1998], Low unemployment in the Czech Republic: 'Miracle' or 'Mirage'?, "Monthly Labor Review", nr 8.
• Dornbusch R. [1993], Stabilization, Debt, and Reform, Prentice Hall, New York.
• Leon-Ledesma M., and McAdam P. [2004|, Unemployment, Hysteresis and Transition, "Scottish Journal of Political Economy", vol. 51, nr 3.
• Münic D., Svejnar J. [2007], Unemployment in East and West Europe, Discussion Paper Series IZA DP No. 2798, Institute for the Study of Labor at the University of Bonn, Bonn.
• Pallis D. [2006], The Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment in the New European Union Member-States, "International Research Journal of Finance and Economics", vol. 1.
• Shevchuk V. [2006], Macroeconomic Effects of the Strong Zloty, Proceedings of the XXVII All-Polish Symposium organized by the Department of Statistics at the Cracow University of Economics (Zakopane, April 26-29,2005), University of Economics, Cracow.
• Stevenson A., Muscatelli V., Gregory M. [1994], Macroeconomic Theorv and Stabilisation Pohcy, Philip Allan/Barnes&Noble Books, Glasgow-Oxford
• Welfe W., Florczak W. |2007], Średniookresowa prognoza rozwoju gospodarczego Polski Podtrzymane ożywienie, "Gospodarka Narodowa", nr 5-7.