Warianty tytułu
The Concept of Phillip's Curve - Theoretical Grounds and Estimations for Poland
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie dyskusji, toczącej się w teorii ekonomii na temat wymienności inflacji i bezrobocia (krzywa Phillipsa). Omówiono teoretyczne podstawy, wynikające z tej krzywej. Ustalenia te poddano weryfikacji dla gospodarki polskiej, z wykorzystaniem metod ekonometrycznych. Stwierdzono, że zależność między bezrobociem a inflacją obserwowana w krajach o rozwiniętej gospodarce rynkowej występuje także w Polsce.
The aim of the article is to present a discussion taking place in the theory of economics on inflation-unemployment trade-off between and (Phillips curve). Theoretical grounds resulting from this curve are discussed. These findings were verified for the Polish economy by means of econometric methods. On the basis of the analysis of the rate of unemployment and the rate of CPI in Poland in the years 1997-2004 it was estimated that there exists an interdependence between those variables. According to Granger, changes in the rate of unemployment are the reason for changes in the rate of inflation and changes in the rate of inflation are the reason for changes in the rate of unemployment. Estimations of the Phillips curve made it possible to state that there exists a negative interdependence between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, which means that within a short period of time a "trade-off may occur between those anables. This is convergent with the findings of the contemporary theory of economics. (original abstract)
Słowa kluczowe
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
27-40
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
autor
Bibliografia
- Akerlof G.A., Nobel Lecture: Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior, American Economic Review, June 2002.
- Ball L., Mankiw N.G., The NAIRU in Theory and Practice, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, Working Paper 8940, May 2002.
- Barczyk R., Kruszka M., Cechy morfologiczne wahań koniunkturalnych w gospodarce Polski w okresie transformacji, w: Diagnozowanie koniunktury gospodarczej w Polsce, red. K.Piech, S. Pangsy-Kania, Dom Wydawniczy Elipsa, Warszawa 2003.
- Blanchard O., Katz L.F., What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, Working Paper 5822, November 1996.
- ChadhaB., TsiddonD., Inflation, Nominal Interest Rates and the Variability of Output, Journal of Monetary Economics vol. 42, 1998.
- CharemzaW.W., DeadmanD.F., Nowa ekonometria, Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa 1997.
- Clark P.B., Goodhart Ch.A.E., Huang H., Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in a Rational Expectations Model of the Phillips Curve, Journal of Monetary Economics vol. 43, 1999.
- DebelleG., Vickery J., Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia, Research Discussion Paper 9706, Reserve Bank of Australia, Economic Research Department, October 1997.
- Friedman M., Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment, Journal of Political Economy, June 1977.
- Friedman M., The Role of Monetary Policy, American Economic Review, March 1968.
- Friedman M., Unemployment versus Inflation? - an Evaluation of the Phillips Curve, w: M. Friedman, Monetarist Economics, Oxford - Cambridge MA 1991. Gordon R.J., The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy, Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 11, 1997, no. 1.
- Granger C.W.J., Investigating Casual Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica vol. 37, 1969, no. 3.
- Gruen D., Pagan A., Thompson C., The Phillips Curve in Australia, Journal of Monetary Economics vol. 44,1999.
- Kamiński M., Niestacjonamość szeregów czasowych (maszynopis powielony), Poznań 2002.
- Kruszka M., Wyodrębnianie wahań cyklicznych (maszynopis powielony), Poznań 2003.
- Kuczyński G., Strzała K., Krzywa Phillipsa w Polsce w okresie transformacji - mit czy fakt (materiał powielony), Uniwersytet Gdański, Gdańsk 2001.
- Lipscy R.G., The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957; A Further Analysis, Economica, February 1960.
- Lucas R.E., Expectations and the Neutrality of Money, Journal of Economic Theory, April 1972.
- Lucas R.E., Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality, Journal of Political Economy vol. 104, 1996, no. 4.
- Lucas R.E., Rapping L.A., Price Expectations and the Phillips Curve, American Economic Review, June 1969.
- Lucas R.E., Rapping L.A., Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation, Journal of Political Economy, September-October 1969.
- Muth J., Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements, Econometrica 1961, no. 29.
- Phelps E.S., Money-Wage Dynamics and Labour Market Equilibrium, part 2, Journal of Political Economy, 1968, no. 76.
- Phillips A.W., The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom. 1861-1957, Economica, November 1958.
- SamuelsonP., SolowR., Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy, American Economic Review, May 1960.
- Santomero A.M., Seater J.J., The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off: A Critique of the Literature, Journal of Economic Literature, June 1978.
- Sargent Т., A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States, Journal of Political Economy vol. 84, 1976, no. 2.
- Sargent Т., Rational Expectations and the Reconstruction of Macroeconomics, w: The Rational Expectations Revolution: Readings from the Front Line, red. P.J. Miller, Cambridge 1996.
- Sargent Т., Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1973, no. 2.
- SnowdonB., Vane H., Wynarczyk P., Współczesne nurty teorii makro ekonomii, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 1998.
- Socha J., Wojciechowski W., Koncepcja NAIRU, dezinflacja a druga fala bezrobocia w Polsce, Bank i Kredyt 2004, nr 3.
- Stiglitz J., Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis, Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 11, 1997, no. 1.
- Welfe A., Ekonometria. Metody i ich zastosowanie, Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa 1998.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000121242833