Forecasting medium-term natural gas demand for the European Union

• Autorzy: Chrulski Tomasz

Warianty tytułu

PL

Opracowanie prognoz średnioterminowych zapotrzebowania na gaz ziemny dla obszaru Unii Europejskiej

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The European Commission proposed to increase the greenhouse gas emission reduction target to at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 level. The aim of this article is to visualise the EU natural gas consumption trend until 2023 regarding to energy transformation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method) is used in this study. The analysis is based on historical volumes of natural gas consumed in 2016–2020 in 28 European Union countries. An effort can be made to state that the next coming months will have a slight increase in natural gas consumption, however, the growth will depend on the pace of the economies and the pace of the energy transition.

PL

Komisja Europejska zaproponowała zwiększenie celowej redukcji emisji gazów cieplarnianych do co najmniej 55% do roku 2030 w porównaniu z poziomem z roku 1990. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest analiza trendu zużycia gazu ziemnego w UE do roku 2023 w kontekście transformacji energetycznej. W badaniu wykorzystano metodę ARIMA. Analizę przeprowadzono w oparciu o historyczne ilości zużytego gazu ziemnego w latach 2016–2020 dla 28 krajów Unii Europejskiej. Na podstawie wykonanych prognoz można stwierdzić, że najbliższe miesiące będą charakteryzowały się niewielkim wzrostem zużycia gazu ziemnego, jednak wzrost będzie zależał od tempa rozwoju gospodarek i tempa transformacji energetycznej.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Unia Europejska; UE; Europejski Zielony Ład; prognozowanie; gaz ziemny; koronawirus; transformacja

EN

European Union; EU; European Green Deal; forecasting; natural gas; coronavirus; transformation

• Wydawca: Wydział Nauk Politycznych i Studiów Międzynarodowych, Uniwersytet Warszawski
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Europejski
• Rocznik: 2022
• Numer: 1(63)
• Strony: 73-85

Daty

wydano

2022

Twórcy

autor

Chrulski Tomasz

• AGH University of Science and Technology

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