Prediction of Turkey's denim trousers export using artificial neural networks and the autoregressive integrated moving average model

Özbek, A.; Akalin, M.; Topuz, V.; Sennaroglun, B.

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Artykuł - szczegóły

Czasopismo

Fibres & Textiles in Eastern Europe

2011 | Vol. 19, no. 3 (86) | 10-16

Tytuł artykułu

Prediction of Turkey's denim trousers export using artificial neural networks and the autoregressive integrated moving average model

Autorzy

Özbek, A. , Akalin, M. , Topuz, V. , Sennaroglun, B.

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

Warianty tytułu

Prognoza tureckiego eksportu dżinsów przy wykorzystaniu sztucznych sieci neuronowych i całkowego modelu autoregresji

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

In this study, Turkey's denim trouser export was predicted using ANN and ARIMA models.ANN models were composed from the import of denim trousers, the minimum wage, the price of cotton, electricity, and water, the value of TRY against USD, the credit usage of ready-made clothing enterprises, export credits, the real effective exchange rate, brands of denim trousers, and the denim trouser Balasa Index. It is observed that the best prediction is provided by MLP, the second - with ERNN and the third - with ARIMA. The reason why the export of denim trousers is not completely modeled can be explained by the economic downturn, which began in 2008 and still continues. However, it is clearly seen that ANN models predict more successfully than ARIMA ones.

W artykule prognozowano eksport dżinsów z Turcji za pomocą sztucznych sieci neuronowych i modelu ARIMA. Strukturę sztucznych sieci neuronowych opracowano na podstawie importu, minimalnego wynagrodzenia, ceny bawełny, elektryczności, wody, kursu waluty tureckiej w stosunku do dolara, kredytu obciążającego przedsiębiorstwa produkujące gotowe wybory, kredytów eksportowych, rzeczywistego efektywnego współczynnika wymiany, marek spodni dżinsowych i indeksu Balassy. Zaobserwowano, że najlepsze prognozowanie uzyskuje się stosując struktury MLP, następnie ERNN i jako ostatnie ARIMA. Przyczyną dla której eksportu dżinsów nie da się jednoznacznie modelować jest pogorszeni sytuacji ekonomicznej trwające od 2008 roku do chwili obecnej.

Słowa kluczowe

sztuczne sieci neuronowe ARIMA prognoza eksportu dżinsów eksport spodnie dżinsowe

Artificial Neural Networks ARIMA prediction export denim pants

Wydawca

Czasopismo

Fibres & Textiles in Eastern Europe

Rocznik

2011

Tom

Vol. 19, no. 3 (86)

Strony

10-16

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 25 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Özbek, A.

autor

Akalin, M.

autor

Topuz, V.

autor

Sennaroglun, B.

Turkey, Göztepe Istanbul, Marmara University,, Technical Education Faculty Faculty of Technical Education, aozbek@marmara.edu.tr

Bibliografia

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Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikatory

Identyfikator YADDA

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