Global sensitivity analysis of multi-state markov reliability models of power equipment approximated by polynomial chaos expansion

• Autorzy: Rocco, C. M. , Zio, E.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Analiza globalnej wrażliwości wielostanowych modeli niezawodności markowa dla urządzeń energetycznych aproksymowanych za pomocą rozwinięcia w chaos wielomianowy

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Reliability and availability of electric power system equipment (e.g., generator units, transformers) are often evaluated by defining and solving Markov models. Transition rates among the identified equipment states are estimated from experimental and field data, or expert judgment, with inevitable uncertainty. For model understanding and to guide validation and confidence building, it is of interest to investigate the effects of the uncertainty in the input transition rates on the output reliability and availability. To this aim, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) can be used for defining importance (sensitivity) indexes that allow a ranking of the transition rates with respect to their influence on the uncertainty in the output. In general, GSA requires a large number of model evaluations. In this paper, a metamodel is defined to estimate the performance index of interest (e.g. reliability or availability). The metamodel is built based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), a multidimensional polynomial model approximation whose coefficients are determined by evaluating the model in a reduced set of predetermined values of the input. The proposed approach is illustrated on a power generating unit.

PL

Niezawodność i gotowość urządzeń elektroenergetycznych jest często oceniana poprzez definiowanie i rozwiązywanie modeli łańcuchów Markowa. Współczynniki prawdopodobieństwa przejścia pomiędzy zdefiniowanymi stanami urządzeń są oceniane na podstawie badań doświadczalnych i danych otrzymanych dla realnych systemów lub są przedmiotem oceny ekspertów. W celu zrozumienia istoty modelu, kierowania procesem jego walidacji oraz budowania zaufania należy się zainteresować zbadaniem wpływu niepewności w określeniu wejściowych współczynników przejścia w modelu Markowa na uzyskiwane wyjściowe wartości niezawodności i gotowości. W tym celu został zdefiniowany metamodel pozwalający na określenie współczynników wpływu na parametry eksploatacyjne (np. niezawodność czy gotowość). Ten metamodel został zbudowany w oparciu o rozwinięcie w chaos wielomianowy, wielowymiarowy modelu aproksymacji wielomianowej, gdzie współczynniki modelu są określane poprzez ewaluację modelu dla zredukowanego zbioru predefiniowanych wartości wejściowych. Zaproponowany sposób jest zilustrowany na przykładzie bloku elektroenergetycznego.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

niezawodność; gotowość; system wielostanowy; łańcuchy Markowa z czasem ciągłym; rozszerzenie w chaos wielomianowy; niepewność parametrów; analiza wrażliwości

EN

reliability; availability; multi-state systems; homogeneousc time Markov chain; polynomial chaos expansion; parameter uncertainty; sensitivity analysis

• Czasopismo: Journal of KONBiN
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: No. 3 (23)
• Strony: 59--70
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 28 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Rocco, C. M.

• Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela

autor

Zio, E.

• Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy

Bibliografia

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