Reservoir water level forecasting using group method of data handling

• Autorzy: Zaji, A. H. , Bonakdari, H. , Gharabaghi, B.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Accurately forecasted reservoir water level is among the most vital data for efficient reservoir structure design and management. In this study, the group method of data handling is combined with the minimum description length method to develop a very practical and functional model for predicting reservoir water levels. The models’ performance is evaluated using two groups of input combinations based on recent days and recent weeks. Four different input combinations are considered in total. The data collected from Chahnimeh#1 Reservoir in eastern Iran are used for model training and validation. To assess the models’ applicability in practical situations, the models are made to predict a non-observed dataset for the nearby Chahnimeh#4 Reservoir. According to the results, input combinations (L, L-1) and (L, L-1, L-12) for recent days with root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 0.3478 and 0.3767, respectively, outperform input combinations (L, L-7) and (L, L-7, L-14) for recent weeks with RMSE of 0.3866 and 0.4378, respectively, with the dataset from https://www. typingclub.com/st. Accordingly, (L, L-1) is selected as the best input combination for making 7-day ahead predictions of reservoir water levels.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

prognozowanie; poziom wody; grupowa metoda przetwarzania danych; kombinacja wejściowa; prognozowanie szeregów czasowych

EN

forecasting; water level; group method of data handling; input combination; time series prediction; soft computing

• Czasopismo: Acta Geophysica
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: Vol. 66, no. 4
• Strony: 717--730
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 46 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Zaji, A. H.

• Department of Civil Engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

autor

Bonakdari, H.

• Department of Civil Engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran,

autor

Gharabaghi, B.

• School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON NIG 2W1, Canada

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-018-0168-4